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THERICARDIANALTERNATIVETheRicardianmodificationtothestandardanalysisbeginswiththeobse...
THE RICARDIAN ALTERNATIVE
The Ricardian modification to the st andard analysis begins with the observation that , for a given path of government spending ,a deficit-financed cut in current taxes leads to higher future taxes that have the same present value as the initial cut .This result follows from the government's budget constraint ,which equates total expenditures for each period (including interest payments )to revenues from taxation or other sources and the net issue of interest-bearing public debt.Abstracting from chain-letter cases where the public debt can grow forever at the rate of interest or higher ,the present value of taxes (and other revenues) cannot change unless the government changes the present value of its expenditures .This point amounts fixed by the total present value of spending.Hence,holding fixed the path of government expenditures and non-tax revenues,a cut in today's taxes must be matched by a corresponding increase in the present value of future taxes.
Suppose now that households' demands for goods depend on the expected present value of taxes-that is ,each household subtracts its share of this present value from the expected present value of income to determine a net wealth position .Then fiscal policy would affect aggregate consumer demand only if it altered the expected present value of taxes .But the preceding argument was that the present value of taxes would not change as long as the present value of spending did not change .Therefore ,the substitution of a budget deficit for current taxes (or any other rearrangement of the timing of taxes )has no impact on the aggregate demand for goods.In this sense,budget deficits and taxation have equivalent effects on the economy-hence the term,'Ricardian equivalence theorem'.To put the equivalence result another way,a decrease in the government's saving (that is,a current budget deficit)leads to an offseting increase in desired private saving,and hence to no change in desired national saving.
Since desired national saving does not change ,the real interest rate does not have to rise in a closed economy to maintain balance between desired national saving and investment demand .Hence,there is no effect on investment,and no burden of the public debt or social security in the sence of Modigliani(1961)and Feldstein(1974).In a setting of an open economy there would also be no effect on the current-account balance because desired private saving rises by enough to avoid having to borrow from abroad .Therefore ,budget deficits would not cause current-account deficits. 展开
The Ricardian modification to the st andard analysis begins with the observation that , for a given path of government spending ,a deficit-financed cut in current taxes leads to higher future taxes that have the same present value as the initial cut .This result follows from the government's budget constraint ,which equates total expenditures for each period (including interest payments )to revenues from taxation or other sources and the net issue of interest-bearing public debt.Abstracting from chain-letter cases where the public debt can grow forever at the rate of interest or higher ,the present value of taxes (and other revenues) cannot change unless the government changes the present value of its expenditures .This point amounts fixed by the total present value of spending.Hence,holding fixed the path of government expenditures and non-tax revenues,a cut in today's taxes must be matched by a corresponding increase in the present value of future taxes.
Suppose now that households' demands for goods depend on the expected present value of taxes-that is ,each household subtracts its share of this present value from the expected present value of income to determine a net wealth position .Then fiscal policy would affect aggregate consumer demand only if it altered the expected present value of taxes .But the preceding argument was that the present value of taxes would not change as long as the present value of spending did not change .Therefore ,the substitution of a budget deficit for current taxes (or any other rearrangement of the timing of taxes )has no impact on the aggregate demand for goods.In this sense,budget deficits and taxation have equivalent effects on the economy-hence the term,'Ricardian equivalence theorem'.To put the equivalence result another way,a decrease in the government's saving (that is,a current budget deficit)leads to an offseting increase in desired private saving,and hence to no change in desired national saving.
Since desired national saving does not change ,the real interest rate does not have to rise in a closed economy to maintain balance between desired national saving and investment demand .Hence,there is no effect on investment,and no burden of the public debt or social security in the sence of Modigliani(1961)and Feldstein(1974).In a setting of an open economy there would also be no effect on the current-account balance because desired private saving rises by enough to avoid having to borrow from abroad .Therefore ,budget deficits would not cause current-account deficits. 展开
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RICARDIAN 替代选择
Ricardian 针对 st andard 分析的修正开始观察 , 对于一条政府开支的给定路径，对较高的未来在现在的税领引中的赤字供给削减经费的课以税那有如开始的削减一样的现在价值。这一个结果从政府的预算限制跟随 ,使相等总开支对来自课税或其他的来源和生兴趣公众的债务净余议题的收入每个时期 ( 包括使付款感兴趣 ) 。从公众的债务能以兴趣的比率永远地生长的链- 信的情形摘录，否则除非政府改变它的开支现在价值，否则更高地，税 ( 和其他的收入) 的现在价值不能够改变。这被 spending.Hence 的总计现在价值修理的点数量,把持修理了政府开支和非税金收入带没州的路径,今天的税削减一定被将来税的现在价值的对应增加相配。
现在假如，家庭对货物的要求仰赖税的预期现在价值-那是 , 每个家庭减去这一个礼物的它部份来自察睁收入的预期现在价值的价值决定一个净余的财富位置。只有当如果它改变了税的预期现在价值，然后财政的政策会影响合计的消费者要求。但是前述的争论是，只要开支的现在价值没有改变，税的现在价值不改变。因此，预算赤字的替换对于现在的税 ( 或税的时间安排的任何其他的再排列 ) 没有在对货物的合计要求上的冲击。在这一个感觉中, 预算赤字和课税有在经济方面的相蠢蔽等效果-期限， 'Ricardian 同等定理' 由此而来.放同等产生另外的一个方法 , 对被需要二等兵储蓄的弥补增加的政府方面的减少储蓄 ( 是,一个现在的预算赤字) 领引, 和因此对被需要国民储蓄的方面没有改变。
因为需要国家的储蓄不改变 ,真正的利率没有在关闭经济方面上升在需要国民储蓄和投资要求之间维持平衡。因此,没有在投资方面的效果 , 和 Modigliani(1961) 和 Feldstein 的 sence 的没有公众的债务或社会福利的负担.(1974)在一组开着的经济也会有不在涌流方面的效果-因为从在国外需要了充足的二等兵援救上升避免必须借，帐户平衡。因此 , 预算赤字不引起涌流- 帐户的赤字。
Ricardian 针对 st andard 分析的修正开始观察 , 对于一条政府开支的给定路径，对较高的未来在现在的税领引中的赤字供给削减经费的课以税那有如开始的削减一样的现在价值。这一个结果从政府的预算限制跟随 ,使相等总开支对来自课税或其他的来源和生兴趣公众的债务净余议题的收入每个时期 ( 包括使付款感兴趣 ) 。从公众的债务能以兴趣的比率永远地生长的链- 信的情形摘录，否则除非政府改变它的开支现在价值，否则更高地，税 ( 和其他的收入) 的现在价值不能够改变。这被 spending.Hence 的总计现在价值修理的点数量,把持修理了政府开支和非税金收入带没州的路径,今天的税削减一定被将来税的现在价值的对应增加相配。
现在假如，家庭对货物的要求仰赖税的预期现在价值-那是 , 每个家庭减去这一个礼物的它部份来自察睁收入的预期现在价值的价值决定一个净余的财富位置。只有当如果它改变了税的预期现在价值，然后财政的政策会影响合计的消费者要求。但是前述的争论是，只要开支的现在价值没有改变，税的现在价值不改变。因此，预算赤字的替换对于现在的税 ( 或税的时间安排的任何其他的再排列 ) 没有在对货物的合计要求上的冲击。在这一个感觉中, 预算赤字和课税有在经济方面的相蠢蔽等效果-期限， 'Ricardian 同等定理' 由此而来.放同等产生另外的一个方法 , 对被需要二等兵储蓄的弥补增加的政府方面的减少储蓄 ( 是,一个现在的预算赤字) 领引, 和因此对被需要国民储蓄的方面没有改变。
因为需要国家的储蓄不改变 ,真正的利率没有在关闭经济方面上升在需要国民储蓄和投资要求之间维持平衡。因此,没有在投资方面的效果 , 和 Modigliani(1961) 和 Feldstein 的 sence 的没有公众的债务或社会福利的负担.(1974)在一组开着的经济也会有不在涌流方面的效果-因为从在国外需要了充足的二等兵援救上升避免必须借，帐户平衡。因此 , 预算赤字不引起涌流- 帐户的赤字。
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