Question

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摩天大楼指数——如影随形的经济危机

作为一种以巨大的经济力量为支撑的建筑物，摩天大楼常被民众和政客视为展示经济繁荣、社会进步的标志。有些经济学家则持完全相反的看法，认为摩天大楼的出现，特别是摩天大楼的纪录被刷新，往往预示着经济即将衰退。
“高楼建成之日，即是市场衰退之时”，这是德意志银行的证券分析师安德鲁•劳伦斯于1999年发表的判言。2006年2月15日，雷曼兄弟公司在北京召开全球经济会议，其全球首席经济学家卢埃林向我国客户提及“摩天大楼指数”的预言：“如果全球有发生经济危机的可能性，那很可能会在2007年或2008年。”
雷曼的首席经济学家预见了2007年到2008年的经济危机，但却不曾想到，雷曼的百年基业正是在这场危机中化为泡影。对于经济而言，摩天大楼是荣耀还是诅咒？其与经济危机之间是否真的存在这样密切的联系呢？
1999年，安德鲁•劳伦斯经过研究验证了摩天大楼与经济危机的关联，并将这种关联称为“摩天大楼指数”。每一幢刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼的崛起，往往都伴随着经济的衰退。自20世纪初以来，全球共出现了四轮摩天大楼热，而每一次，都伴随着经济危机或金融动荡。
20世纪20年代，美国经济转好，证券市场再度空前繁荣，民用、商用房产建设高歌猛进。这期间，三座刷新纪录的摩天大楼先后兴建。纽约的华尔街40号、克莱斯勒大厦和帝国大厦相继于1929年至1931年的三年中落成，但随之而来的不是新的繁荣，而是空前的大萧条。在经历了被美国人称之为“黄金时代”的20世纪60年代强劲、持续的经济繁荣后，纽约的世贸中心和芝加哥的西尔斯大厦开始兴建。1972年和1974年，两座再次刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼相继落成，随后，全球经济发生了严重滞胀。
摩天大楼与经济危机的关联如此密切，很难用巧合来理解，那么究竟是什么原因让经济危机总是与摩天大楼如影随形呢？
首先，人性使然。人性当中有盲目自信的一面。具体体现在对客观事物认识不足，偏执于对事物的主观看法上。劳伦斯把他发现的经济危机与摩天大楼的联系称为“百年病态关联”，但此类现象，在人类社会中又何止只存在了百年。以史为鉴，我们不难发现，在我国历史的长河中，此类现象早有体现。商朝兴盛时，纣王兴建造鹿台，引得民怨四起最终于鹿台自焚；清代鼎盛时，乾隆帝大举修建园林，导致国力衰落最终丧权辱国。
其次，利益推动。在商业行为中，逐利是前提条件。在经济繁荣之前，通常有一个低利率的过程，这也是经济向繁荣周期转化的一个先决条件。而在经济繁荣的过程中，利率相对于人们对于未来收益的预期来说，一直都是低的。所以，就会产生一系列的利益传导途径，也就是前面所提到的利益链条。经济的繁荣和相对较低的利率，对土地价值和资本成本有着直接的影响。在土地价格、企业需求和资金支撑三个因素所构成的利益链的作用下，可以刷新世界纪录的摩天大楼计划，就应运而生了。
就像日有昼夜、季有冬夏一样，经济也是存在景气周期的。任何商品的价格，都会受到供需关系的影响。否极泰来，盛极而衰，低廉的利率、膨胀的需求、上涨的资本价格，以及大多数人盲目乐观的心态，所集合产生的“黄金状态”构成了摩天大楼的需求，但这种状态是不可持续的。
所以，通常是在经济已经步入衰退的时候，摩天大楼才刚刚竣工；在它真正投入使用的时候，经济很可能已经深陷困境。这就导致了经济危机总是与摩天大楼的兴建如影随形，也常使全球第一建筑成为逝去繁荣的纪念碑。
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Answer 1

Skyscraper Index - the economic crisis go hand in hand

As a huge economic force for the support of the buildings, skyscrapers often show people and politicians as economic prosperity, a sign of social progress. Some economists hold the opposite view that the emergence of skyscrapers, especially the skyscrapers of the record is refreshed, often indicates that the economy will decline.
"High-rise built in the day, that is, when the market downturn" is Deutsche Bank Securities analyst Andrew • Lawrence published in 1999, sentenced to a statement. February 15, 2006, Lehman Brothers global economic conference held in Beijing, the Llewellyn, chief global economist of clients referred to the "skyscraper index" of prophecy: "If the global economic crisis has the possibility of It is likely in 2007 or 2008. "
Lehman's chief economist predicted the 2007 economic crisis in 2008, but did not expect Lehman's centennial is in this crisis evaporated. The economy, the skyscraper is the glory or the curse? With the economic crisis, there is really so close between the link?
In 1999, Andrew • Lawrence skyscrapers study are associated with the economic crisis, and this association known as the "skyscraper index." A new world record for every rise of skyscrapers, often accompanied by economic recession. Since the beginning of the 20th century, there were four rounds of the world of skyscrapers heat, and each time, are accompanied by economic crisis or financial turmoil.
20th century, 20 years, the U.S. economy turns for the better, the stock market again unprecedented prosperity, civil, commercial real estate construction triumph. During this period, three successively record the construction of skyscrapers. New York 40 Wall Street, Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building in succession from 1929 to 1931 for completion in three years, but the attendant prosperity is not new, but the unprecedented Great Depression. After being Americans called "golden age" of the 20th century, 60 years strong, sustained economic prosperity, the New York World Trade Center and the Sears Tower in Chicago began construction. 1972 and 1974, two new world record again, skyscrapers have been built, then there was a serious global economic stagflation.
Skyscrapers and so closely associated with the economic crisis, it is difficult to understand the coincidence, then what is the reason for the economic crisis, it always go hand in hand with the skyscrapers?
First of all, human nature. Among human side of the blind self-confidence. Embodied in the lack of knowledge of objective things, paranoia in the subjective perceptions of things. Lawrence found that the economic crisis of his links with the skyscraper known as the "Rise of pathological relevance," but such a phenomenon in human society has only existed for far more than a hundred years. Learn from history, we can easily find the course of history in our country, this kind of phenomenon has long been reflected. Shang dynasty flourished, the King Zhou Lu Tai Hing Construction, attracted widespread discontent amongst the ultimate self-immolation in Lutai; height of the Qing Dynasty when Emperor Qianlong built a large scale landscape, leading to national decline ultimately humiliating.
Second, the interests promoted. In business practices, the pursuit of profit is a prerequisite. Before the economic boom, there is usually a low interest rate process, which is transforming the economy to the boom cycle is a prerequisite. In the process of economic prosperity, interest rates relative to earnings expectations for the future people who have always been low. Therefore, the interest will produce a series of pathways, that is, the interests of the aforementioned chain. Economic prosperity and relatively low interest rates, the value of land and capital costs have a direct impact. In land prices, and financial support for business needs posed by the interests of the three factors under the action of the chain, you can set a world record in the skyscraper scheme came into being.
Like at night and day, summer and winter quarter, the economic boom period also exist. The price of any commodity will be the impact of supply and demand. After a storm, the boom-bust, low interest rates, expansion of demand, the rising price of capital, and most people blindly optimistic attitude, which sets to generate the "golden state" constitutes a skyscraper needs, but this state is not sustainable.
So, usually in the economy has entered a recession, just completed skyscrapers; in it really put into use, the economy is likely to have been in deep trouble. This leads to the economic crisis is always hand in hand with the construction of skyscrapers, often become dead to the world's first building boom of the monument.

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Answer 2

Skyscraper Index - go hand in hand with the economic crisis as a great economic power as the support of the buildings, skyscrapers are often seen as showing the public and politicians of economic prosperity, a sign of social progress. Some economists hold the opposite view that the emergence of skyscrapers, especially the skyscrapers of the record is refreshed, often indicates that the economy will decline. "High-rise built in the day, that is, when the market downturn" is Deutsche Bank Securities analyst Andrew • Lawrence published in 1999, sentenced to a statement. February 15, 2006, Lehman Brothers global economic conference held in Beijing, the Llewellyn, chief global economist of clients referred to the "skyscraper index" of prophecy: "If the global economic crisis has the possibility of It is likely in 2007 or 2008. "Lehman's chief economist predicted the 2007 economic crisis in 2008, but did not expect Lehman's centennial is in this crisis evaporated. The economy, the skyscraper is the glory or the curse? With the economic crisis, there is really so close between the link? In 1999, Andrew • Lawrence skyscrapers study are associated with the economic crisis, and this association known as the "skyscraper index." A new world record for every rise of skyscrapers, often accompanied by economic recession. Since the beginning of the 20th century, there were four rounds of the world of skyscrapers heat, and each time, are accompanied by economic crisis or financial turmoil. 20th century, 20 years, the U.S. economy turns for the better, the stock market again unprecedented prosperity, civil, commercial real estate construction triumph. During this period, three successively record the construction of skyscrapers. New York 40 Wall Street, Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building in succession from 1929 to 1931 for completion in three years, but the attendant prosperity is not new, but the unprecedented Great Depression. After being Americans called "golden age" of the 20th century, 60 years strong, sustained economic prosperity, the New York World Trade Center and the Sears Tower in Chicago began construction. 1972 and 1974, two new world record again, skyscrapers have been built, then there was a serious global economic stagflation. Skyscrapers and so closely associated with the economic crisis, it is difficult to understand the coincidence, then what is the reason for the economic crisis, it always go hand in hand with the skyscrapers? First of all, human nature. Among human side of the blind self-confidence. Embodied in the lack of knowledge of objective things, paranoia in the subjective perceptions of things. Lawrence found that the economic crisis of his links with the skyscraper known as the "Rise of pathological relevance," but such a phenomenon in human society has only existed for far more than a hundred years. Learn from history, we can easily find the course of history in our country, this kind of phenomenon has long been reflected. Shang dynasty flourished, the King Zhou Lu Tai Hing Construction, attracted widespread discontent amongst the ultimate self-immolation in Lutai; height of the Qing Dynasty when Emperor Qianlong built a large scale landscape, leading to national decline ultimately humiliating. Second, the interests promoted. In business practices, the pursuit of profit is a prerequisite. Before the economic boom, there is usually a low interest rate process, which is transforming the economy to the boom cycle is a prerequisite. In the process of economic prosperity, interest rates relative to earnings expectations for the future people who have always been low. Therefore, the interest will produce a series of pathways, that is, the interests of the aforementioned chain. Economic prosperity and relatively low interest rates, the value of land and capital costs have a direct impact. In land prices, and financial support for business needs posed by the interests of the three factors under the action of the chain, you can set a world record in the skyscraper scheme came into being. Like at night and day, summer and winter quarter, the economic boom period also exist. The price of any commodity will be the impact of supply and demand. After a storm, boom-bust, low interest rates, expansion of demand, the rising price of capital, and most people blindly optimistic attitude, which sets to generate the "golden state" constitutes a skyscraper needs, but this state is not sustainable. So, usually in the economy has entered a recession, just completed skyscrapers; in it really put into use, the economy is likely to have been in deep trouble. This leads to the economic crisis is always hand in hand with the construction of skyscrapers, often become dead to the world's first building boom of the monument.

Answer 3

Skyscraper index: Inseparable with economic crisis

As a kind of building supported by giant economic power, skyscrapers adored by public and politicians as the demostration of economic flouricient and social improvement. Aginst general opinions, several economists believed that the appearience of skyscrapers, especially the breakthrough of skyscrapers records always is the portent of economy decline.

"The day the scraper finished, the day market declined". A foresee in 1999, from Andrew Laurence, a stock analysist of germany bank. Feb.15th 2006, a global economic conference was called by Lehman brothers in Beijing, during the meeting, Lehman Brothers's global chief economist mentioned the skyscraper index to chinese clints: if the posibility exists for global economic crisis, it should be in 2007 or 2008. He forseed the economic crisis, but he cannot imagin Lehman brothers lost everything in this crisis. Are skyscrapers the glory to economy, or curse? Dose close connection really exist between the crisis and skyscrapers?

In 1999, Andrew studied the connection between skyscrapers and economic crisis, and called this connection "Skyscraper Index". Every breaking record skyscraper finished is accompany with economic decline. Four skyscraper favor had occured after the beginning of 20th century, and everyone accompanyed with economic crisis or monetary disturbance.