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The International Monetary Fund’s semi-annual assessment of the state of global financial markets is a rather contradictory document. It opens by asserting that the “resilience of the global financial system has further improved in the last six months” because of “continued improvement” in the corporate, financial and household sectors in many countries.
(答案C) However, it then devotes considerable space to outlining the growing dangers posed by the increasing complexity of the entire structure.
According to the Global Financial Stability report issued last week, benign conditions, including low interest rates and low credit risks, have helped strengthen the financial system over the past six months. But they have also led to the growth of complacency, always a source of danger. At present “risk premiums for inflation and credit risks leave little or no margin for error in terms of financial asset valuations”.
(答案B)A combination of “low risk premiums, complacency and untested elements of risk management systems with complex financial instruments could ultimately become hazardous to the financial markets.”
Among the risks it identifies are a continued widening of the US current account deficit—now running at $665.9 billion per year, or 5.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—continued rises in oil and other commodity prices, feeding through to the general inflation rate and “negative surprises” for corporate earnings and credit quality.
There is no visible sign of a sustained decline in capital inflows into the US. But the report warns that “undue delays” in addressing the present global imbalances or “serious doubts” about the willingness of central banks to continue to accumulate dollars and thereby fund the US deficit “could spark strong incentives for investors, private and possibly even public, to reduce future dollar purchases or even reduce their existing dollar holdings.”
(答案)This could trigger a further significant decline in the dollar, sparking an increase in interest rates, which would dampen economic demand in the US.
While it does not mention it by name, the report’s authors clearly had General Motors in mind when they noted that another area of concern was “the downgrading of a major global company to subinvestment grade for reasons that may not be linked to negative events in the global economy.”
（答案）Credit rating agencies have threatened to reduce GM debt to “junk bond” status—a move that could lead to financial turbulence as investment funds are forced to sell off GM bonds and shares.
Over the past decade and a half, the global financial market has seen the rapid growth of complex financial instruments aimed at spreading risk and increasing stability.
（答案）But, in a period of market fluctuations, this process could itself become a source of greater instability.
These instruments, the report notes, rely on quantitative mathematical models for value, assessments and pricing. “Therefore, there is a risk that models that are overly similar in their construction could cause investors to rush to exit at the same time, leading to market liquidity shortages.”
The International Monetary Fund’s semi-annual assessment of the state of global financial markets is a rather contradictory document. It opens by asserting that the “resilience of the global financial system has further improved in the last six months” because of “continued improvement” in the corporate, financial and household sectors in many countries.
(答案C) However, it then devotes considerable space to outlining the growing dangers posed by the increasing complexity of the entire structure.
According to the Global Financial Stability report issued last week, benign conditions, including low interest rates and low credit risks, have helped strengthen the financial system over the past six months. But they have also led to the growth of complacency, always a source of danger. At present “risk premiums for inflation and credit risks leave little or no margin for error in terms of financial asset valuations”.
(答案B)A combination of “low risk premiums, complacency and untested elements of risk management systems with complex financial instruments could ultimately become hazardous to the financial markets.”
Among the risks it identifies are a continued widening of the US current account deficit—now running at $665.9 billion per year, or 5.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—continued rises in oil and other commodity prices, feeding through to the general inflation rate and “negative surprises” for corporate earnings and credit quality.
There is no visible sign of a sustained decline in capital inflows into the US. But the report warns that “undue delays” in addressing the present global imbalances or “serious doubts” about the willingness of central banks to continue to accumulate dollars and thereby fund the US deficit “could spark strong incentives for investors, private and possibly even public, to reduce future dollar purchases or even reduce their existing dollar holdings.”
(答案)This could trigger a further significant decline in the dollar, sparking an increase in interest rates, which would dampen economic demand in the US.
While it does not mention it by name, the report’s authors clearly had General Motors in mind when they noted that another area of concern was “the downgrading of a major global company to subinvestment grade for reasons that may not be linked to negative events in the global economy.”
（答案）Credit rating agencies have threatened to reduce GM debt to “junk bond” status—a move that could lead to financial turbulence as investment funds are forced to sell off GM bonds and shares.
Over the past decade and a half, the global financial market has seen the rapid growth of complex financial instruments aimed at spreading risk and increasing stability.
（答案）But, in a period of market fluctuations, this process could itself become a source of greater instability.
These instruments, the report notes, rely on quantitative mathematical models for value, assessments and pricing. “Therefore, there is a risk that models that are overly similar in their construction could cause investors to rush to exit at the same time, leading to market liquidity shortages.”
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