Question

帮忙翻译一下英语

This paper has analyzed how financial crises affected international trade in the last two decades, an important question largely ignored by the literature. The theoretical analysis predicts that imports will decrease during and after a banking crisis, whereas exports will rise during but fall after the crisis. Theoretical analysis predicts that imports and exports will fall during currency crises but that the effect after the crisis depends on the source of external shocks. By estimating a model of bilateral trade between 50 countries over a period of 19 years with real world data, I have found that the empirical results are generally consistent the theoretical predictions, especially in 1991-1998. The empirical results also show that, after currency crises, exports increased more significantly in 1991-1998 than they did in 1982-1990.

Answer 1

本文分析了金融危机的影响如何，在过去20年中，一个重要的问题主要是由文学忽视的国际贸易。理论分析预测，进口将下降期间和之后的银行危机，而出口将上升，但在危机后下降。理论分析预测，在进口和出口将下降，但货币危机后的效果危机对外部冲击的来源而定。通过估计超过了19年的数据与现实世界期内，50个国家之间的双边交易模式，我发现，实证结果通常是一致的理论预测，特别是在1991-1998年。实证结果也表明，货币危机后，在1991-1998年的出口增长明显高于他们在1982至1990年一样。