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1,
P(2H,1T|Z=1)=3×P(H|Y1)×P(H|Y1)×[1-P(H|Y1)]=3×0.6×0.6×0.4=0.432
P(2H,1T|Z=2)=3×P(H|Y2)×P(H|Y2)×[1-P(H|Y2)]=3×0.1×0.1×0.9=0.027
So
P(2H,1T)=P(Z=1)×P(2H,1T|Z=1)+P(Z=2)×P(2H,1T|Z=2)=0.5×0.432+0.5×0.027=0.2295
2,
P(Z=1|2H,1T)=P(Z=1)×P(2H,1T|Z=1)÷P(2H,1T)=8/13
3,
P(H)
=P(H|Y1)×P(Z=1|2H,1T)+P(H|Y2)×P(Z=2|2H,1T)
=P(H|Y1)×P(Z=1|2H,1T)+P(H|Y2)×[1-P(Z=1|2H,1T)]
=0.6×8/13+0.1×5/13
=53/130
P(2H,1T|Z=1)=3×P(H|Y1)×P(H|Y1)×[1-P(H|Y1)]=3×0.6×0.6×0.4=0.432
P(2H,1T|Z=2)=3×P(H|Y2)×P(H|Y2)×[1-P(H|Y2)]=3×0.1×0.1×0.9=0.027
So
P(2H,1T)=P(Z=1)×P(2H,1T|Z=1)+P(Z=2)×P(2H,1T|Z=2)=0.5×0.432+0.5×0.027=0.2295
2,
P(Z=1|2H,1T)=P(Z=1)×P(2H,1T|Z=1)÷P(2H,1T)=8/13
3,
P(H)
=P(H|Y1)×P(Z=1|2H,1T)+P(H|Y2)×P(Z=2|2H,1T)
=P(H|Y1)×P(Z=1|2H,1T)+P(H|Y2)×[1-P(Z=1|2H,1T)]
=0.6×8/13+0.1×5/13
=53/130
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