Question

概率问题。

6．A worker has asked her supervisor for a letter of recommendation for a new job. She estimates that there is an 80 percent change that she will get the job if she receives a strong recommendation, a 40 percent change if she receives a moderately good recommendation, and a 10 percent change if she receives a weak recommendation. She further estimates that the probability that the recommendation will be strong, moderate, or weak are 0.7, 0.2 and 0.1, respectively.
(1). What is the probability that she will receive the new job offer?
(2). Given that she does receive the job offer, what is the probability that she feel that she received a strong recommendation?

Answer 1

1）第一问0.56+0.08+0.01
=0.65
2）0.56/0.65=0.86