Question

摘要——翻译

摘 要：社会消费品零售总额反映一定时期内人民物质文化生活水平的提高情况，反映社会商品购买力的实现程度，以及零售，市场的规模状况。由社会商品供给和有支付能力的商品需求的规模所决定，是研究人民生活水平、社会零售商品购买力、社会生产、货币流通和物价的发展变化趋势的重要资料。我国是一个经济大国, 经济一直保持平稳较快增长, 城乡居民收入都稳步增长, 消费品需求旺盛, 人们生活水平比较高。其中社会消费品零售总额是反映人民生活水平提高的一个很好的指标。所以对社会消费品零售总额做分析就比较重要。但是影响社会消费品零售总额的因素有很多, 包括收入、住房、医疗、教育以及人们的预期等很多因素, 而且这些因素之间又保持着错综复杂的联系。因此运用数理经济模型来分析和预测较为困难。所以本文采用ARIMA模型对我国2002-2010年的社会消费品零售总额进行分析, 包括判断平稳性，对序列进行差分，对差分平稳序列拟合ARMA模型。得出其规律性, 给出短期预测值，并给出预测值的置信区间。

关键词：平稳序列 差分 ARMA模型 预测值 置信区间

Answer 1

Pick to: social total retail sales of consumer goods reflect certain period of people's material and cultural life, raising the level of the realization of reflecting the social commodity purchasing power, and the degree of the scale of retail, market situation. By the society commodity supply and demand for commodities with the ability to pay of the scale, is determined by the people's living standards, social studies retail goods purchasing power, social production, currency and commodity price trend of the development of the important material. Our country is a economic powers, economic remained steady and fast growth, the income of urban and rural residents is growing steadily, consumer demand, people life level is high. Among them is a reflection of social total retail sales of consumer goods in people's living standards improved a good index. So for society ? total retail sales of consumer goods for analysis