Question

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KEY ISSUE: Strategic planning of logistics infrastructure in the YDR generally under-estimates market demands.
The extent and speed of change in Shanghai and the YDR over the last 20 years – and China’s rapid emergence as a major player in global trade – could not have been easily predicted. Nonetheless, the YDR’s trajectory in global trade has been clearly set since the start of this decade. Major transport infrastructure – ports, airports, railways, and expressways – takes several years to plan, design, and build, making demand assessments critical. Strategic planning for much of the logistics infrastructure in the YDR is generally characterized by: 1) under-estimation in initial demand assessments; 2) the absence of mechanisms to update demand assessments in the course of a project’s cycle and to incorporate new demands into project re-design; 3) inadequate acquisition and sharing between agencies of demand related information; and 4) insufficient coordination between sectoral planners and agencies (ie. rail, ports, roads, air cargo) in planning of infrastructure projects.
A major difficulty for planners is lack of information on the origins, destinations, and characteristics of transport movements in the YDR. There is virtually no current and reliable information available on traffic flows by transport modes. This contrasts sharply with the availability of such information in the EU and in North America (Fig. 18).

Answer 1

长三角地区物流基础设施的战略规划通常低估了市场需求。
上海和长三角过去20年变化的广度和速度，以及中国在国际贸易领域做为一个主要参与者的迅速崛起在当时是难以预测的。然而，长三角地区在国际贸易中的发展轨迹在十年前就已经明确。由于主要交通基础设施--港口、机场、铁路和高速公路--的规划、设计和建设往往需要几年时间，使得需求评估变得至关重要。长三角地区物流基础设施的战略规划有如下特点：1）对最初需求评估的低估； 2）缺乏在工程周期中更新需求评估结果以及将新需求整合到工程再设计中的机制； 3）各机构之间与需求相关的信息其获得不完全、共享不充分； 4）基础设施工程规划过程中不同地区和部门规划者（如铁路、港口、公路和航空运输）之间合作不足。
对规划者来说主要的难题在于缺乏关于长三角地区各种交通运输的起点、终点及特点的信息。实际上，对于不同的运输方式的交通流动目前并没有及时而可靠的信息。这与欧盟和北美此类信息的可获得性形成了鲜明对比（图18）。