Question

摘要翻译

社会消费品零售总额反映一定时期内人民物质文化生活水平的提高情况，以及零售市场的规模状况，是衡量国家经济发展的重要指标。2008年金融海啸席卷全球，我国也受到波及，社会各界对GDP、社会消费品零售总额等经济指标的关注度空前提高，并作出种种分析预测。本文以社会消费品零售总额的预测为背景，利用时间序列有关知识对我国的社会消费品零售总额进行定量预测。文章首先概述了对时间序列的预处理及ARMA 模型的基本思想，然后利用SAS 软件对我国2002-2010年的社会消费品零售总额建立了ARIMA 模型，该模型较好地消除了时间序列趋势的变动和季节的影响，较好地刻画了序列的变化。最后利用该模型对未来序列值作出了短期预测，并给出了95%的置信区间。结果表明，利用该模型对社会消费品零售总额做出的预测在短期内具有较高的准确性和有效性。

Answer 1

社会消费品零售总额反映一定时期内人民物质文化生活水平的提高情况，以及零售市场的规模状况，是衡量国家经济发展的重要指标。
The total retail sales of consumer goods, as key measures to assess the national economic development, could reflect the improvement of people's material and cultural life and the size and situation of retail market in a given period of time.

2008年金融海啸席卷全球，我国也受到波及，社会各界对GDP、社会消费品零售总额等经济指标的关注度空前提高，并作出种种分析预测。
The 2008 financial crisis swept the globe, including China. Thus the concerning about economic indicators such as GDP and social retail goods has been unprecedentedly great by people from all walks of life, with all sorts of analysises and predictions.

本文以社会消费品零售总额的预测为背景，利用时间序列有关知识对我国的社会消费品零售总额进行定量预测。
Based on the background of such predictions, this study makes a quantitative prediction of total retail sales of consumer goods with an approach of time series analysis.

文章首先概述了对时间序列的预处理及ARMA 模型的基本思想，然后利用SAS 软件对我国2002-2010年的社会消费品零售总额建立了ARIMA 模型，该模型较好地消除了时间序列趋势的变动和季节的影响，较好地刻画了序列的变化。
Firstly, a general description about the basic thoughts of the preprocessing of time series and the model of ARMA. Then the model is built with SAS to present the total retail sales during the years from 2002 to 2010. As the trend factor and seasonal factor has been removed, this model can illustrates the variations of series in a favorable way.

最后利用该模型对未来序列值作出了短期预测，并给出了95%的置信区间。结果表明，利用该模型对社会消费品零售总额做出的预测在短期内具有较高的准确性和有效性。
The short-term prediction is made finally with a confidence interval of 95%.
The results demonstrated that the prediction by this model have accuracy and efficiency in the short term.

Answer 2

Total retail sales reflected the improvement of material and cultural living standards in a period of time , as well as the size of retail market conditions,which is an important measure of national economic development indicators. In2008 financial crisis swept the world, China has also been affected, the community concerned GDP, total retail sales of social consumer goods and other economic indicators of attention more than ever before, and make all kinds of predictions. In this paper, the forecast total retail sales of social consumer goods background knowledge on the use of time series of total retail sales of social consumer goods, a quantitative prediction. The article first outlines the pre-and ARMA time series model of the basic idea, and then use SAS software to our 2002-2010 total retail sales of social consumer goods to establish the ARIMA model that could eliminate the time-series trends and changes season, a better characterization of the sequence changes. Finally, the value of the model made a series of future short-term forecasts, and gives the 95% confidence interval. The results show that using this model to make retail sales of social consumer goods in the short term forecast with high accuracy and effectiveness.

Answer 3

社会消费品零售总额反映一定时期内人民物质文化生活水平的提高情况，以及零售市场的规模状况，是衡量国家经济发展的重要指标。
Social total retail sales of consumer goods reflect certain period of people's material and cultural life, and raise the level of the size of the retail market situation, it is to measure the economic development of a country important indexes.

2008年金融海啸席卷全球，我国也受到波及，社会各界对GDP、社会消费品零售总额等经济指标的关注度空前提高，并作出种种分析预测。
The 2008 financial tsunami sweeping the globe, China also is affected, the community to GDP, social economic indexes such as the total retail sales of consumer goods in the attention of unprecedented increase, and make various analysis and prediction.

本文以社会消费品零售总额的预测为背景，利用时间序列有关知识对我国的社会消费品零售总额进行定量预测。
Based on social total retail sales of consumer goods, the forecast for background knowledge about using time series on our country's society quantitatively forecasting total retail sales of consumer goods.

文章首先概述了对时间序列的预处理及ARMA 模型的基本思想，然后利用SAS 软件对我国2002-2010年的社会消费品零售总额建立了ARIMA 模型，该模型较好地消除了时间序列趋势的变动和季节的影响，较好地刻画了序列的变化。
This paper first Outlines for time series pretreatment and the basic idea of ARMA model we, and by using the SAS software in 2002-2010 of total retail sales of consumer goods in the society established ARIMA model, this model eliminates time sequence of the change and trend of influence, good season depicted the sequence of change.

最后利用该模型对未来序列值作出了短期预测，并给出了95%的置信区间。
Finally based on the model for future sequence made short-term forecasting value, and gives the 95% confidence interval.

结果表明，利用该模型对社会消费品零售总额做出的预测在短期内具有较高的准确性和有效性。
The results show that this model is used to social total retail sales of consumer goods in the short term the forecast has higher accuracy and validity.

Answer 4

Social total retail sales of consumer goods reflect certain period of people's material and cultural life, and raise the level of the size of the retail market situation, it is to measure the economic development of a country important indexes. The 2008 financial tsunami sweeping the globe, China also is affected, the community to GDP, social economic indexes such as the total retail sales of consumer goods in the attention of unprecedented increase, and make various analysis and prediction. Based on social total retail sales of consumer goods, the forecast for background knowledge about using time series on our country's society quantitatively forecasting total retail sales of consumer goods. This paper first Outlines for time series pretreatment and the basic idea of ARMA model we, and by using the SAS software in 2002-2010 of total retail sales of consumer goods in the society established ARIMA model, this model eliminates time sequence of the change and trend of influence, good season depicted the sequence of change. Finally based on the model for future sequence made short-term forecasting value, and gives the 95% confidence interval. The results show that this model is used to social total retail sales of consumer goods in the short term the forecast has higher accuracy and validity .

Answer 5

Social retailgoods reflects the improvement of People's material and cultural living standard in one period, and the scale of the retail market. It is an important index to measure the economic development of a country. The financial crises in 2008 influenced the whole world, including our China. Different sectors of society paid more attention to the economic indexes than ever before, like GDP, social retailgoods .etc and had made various kinds of analyses and predictions. This paper will make a quantitative forecast with relevant knowledge of time series, based on social retailgoods. It will overview the preprocessing of time series and the basic idea of ARIMA model first, and then set up ARIMA model of social retailgoods from 2002 to 2010 in China with the use of SAS. This model will eliminate the influence of the changes of time series trend and the seasons, and can describe the changes of series better. At last, this paper will make a short-term prediction with the model, and give confidence interval of 95%。As a result, it turns out that the prediction of social retailgoods with this model in short term will be more accurate and effective.