Question

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指数平滑法模型的建立主要取决于历史数据的各次平滑值，而平滑值的变化制约于平滑系数A的大小，因此平滑系数A的取值很大程度上决定了预测的准确度。确定A的方法通常采用经验估计法或优选法。用优选法选择A需要确定目标函数，在过去的工作中人们在确定目标函数时对不同时间的模型误差同等对待。但实际上近年数据误差比远年数据误差对将来的预测的精度影响更大，因此在优选A时对预测误差采用一视同仁的方式是不适合的。本文采用厚近薄远原则确定目标函数，通过试验方法研究了用厚近薄远原则确定目标函数优选A对预测结果所造成的影响，直观证明了采用厚近薄远原则优选A的优越性，并对厚近薄远的程度问题进行了进一步的探讨。

Answer 1

指数平滑法模型的建立主要取决于历史数据的各次平滑值，而平滑值的变化制约于平滑系数A的大小，因此平滑系数A的取值很大程度上决定了预测的准确度。确定A的方法通常采用经验估计法或优选法。用优选法选择A需要确定目标函数，在过去的工作中人们在确定目标函数时对不同时间的模型误差同等对待。但实际上近年数据误差比远年数据误差对将来的预测的精度影响更大，因此在优选A时对预测误差采用一视同仁的方式是不适合的。本文采用厚近薄远原则确定目标函数，通过试验方法研究了用厚近薄远原则确定目标函数优选A对预测结果所造成的影响，直观证明了采用厚近薄远原则优选A的优越性，并对厚近薄远的程度问题进行了进一步的探讨。

Exponential smoothing model depends mainly on the historical data value, and every smooth smooth the change of the value which restrict the size of A sliding coefficient, so smooth coefficient values of A largely determine the forecast accuracy. A method to determine the estimate method usually experience or worthy. Choose A need to determine with worthy goal function, and in the past work at targeting people of different time when A function of the model error treated equally. But in fact in recent years than data error in data error for the future is the prediction accuracy of more influence on choice, so when the prediction error to A way of using alike were not suitable. In this article, the thick BoYuan principles nearly target function, through the test method is used to study the thick nearly BoYuan principles ? objective function

Answer 2

指数平滑法模型的建立主要取决于历史数据的各次平滑值，而平滑值的变化制约于平滑系数A的大小，因此平滑系数A的取值很大程度上决定了预测的准确度。
Exponential smoothing model depends mainly on the historical data value, and every smooth smooth the change of the value which restrict the size of A sliding coefficient, so smooth coefficient values of A largely determine the forecast accuracy.

确定A的方法通常采用经验估计法或优选法。
A method to determine the estimate method usually experience or worthy.

用优选法选择A需要确定目标函数，在过去的工作中人们在确定目标函数时对不同时间的模型误差同等对待。
Choose A need to determine with worthy goal function, and in the past work at targeting people of different time when A function of the model error treated equally.

但实际上近年数据误差比远年数据误差对将来的预测的精度影响更大，因此在优选A时对预测误差采用一视同仁的方式是不适合的。
But in fact in recent years than data error in data error for the future is the prediction accuracy of more influence on choice, so when the prediction error to A way of using alike were not suitable.

本文采用厚近薄远原则确定目标函数，通过试验方法研究了用厚近薄远原则确定目标函数优选A对预测结果所造成的影响，直观证明了采用厚近薄远原则优选A的优越性，并对厚近薄远的程度问题进行了进一步的探讨。
In this article, the thick BoYuan principles nearly target function, through the test method is used to study the thick nearly BoYuan principles objective function optimization A the forecast results the impact of the thick, intuitive proof nearly BoYuan principle, the superiority of A selection of thick the extent of the BoYuan near the further discussion.

Answer 3

Establishment of exponential smoothing model lies primarily on each smooth value as for history datum, and changes of smooth value depend on size of smoothing-factor A, thus valuing for smoothing-factor A determines accuracy of prediction. Experience estimate/estimation(2选1) method and optimum seeking method are usually applied as approaches to determine A. Choosing A with optimum seeking method requires ascertaining target function(s), yet model errors at different times were equally handled when target functions were being determined in the past. However, data errors in recent years do in fact lay more impact onto precision as for future prediction than those in previous years do, which prooves the inadequacy of equal handling for prediction errors when A is under optimum seeking. This article determines target functions with principle as "giving more weight on the closer one rather than the further", studies impacts of optimum seeking for A through determination for target functions with this principle on predictions by experiment approaches, demonstrates directly advantages/superiority(2选1) of this principle to optimumly seek A as well as implement further discussion on extent issues as for the very principle.

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Answer 4

一看就知道是机器翻译的