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Fulcrum of the axis of anxiety shifts to China
The eurozone crisis only gets worse. All eyes turn to Paris last weekend as finance ministers from the Group of 20 club of powerful nations meet to try to thrash out a solution, amid further downgrades of sovereign debt.

Meanwhile, in the US, long-run unemployment appears to be embedded, the president’s approval ratings are falling through the floor and the frontrunner to oppose him next year is brandishing an apparently unworkable plan to overhaul the nation’s tax code.

All of this is deep reason for concern. Yet investors’ greatest fear, which drove the summer swoon in world stock markets, lies to the east. The fulcrum of the axis of anxiety has shifted to China.

This does not show up naturally from either financial or economic data. But that is in large part because globalisation has rendered financial analysis much harder. Dividing securities according to their geographic location increasingly misses the point. The FTSE 100 index of the largest London-listed stocks is perhaps the clearest case in point – dominated by international resources companies, it has little if any relevance for the UK economy.

But the same is even true of the S&P 500 index of US companies. Most of their profits now come from outside the world’s largest economy.

Now, analysts have started to assess companies according to where their exposures lie. That reveals China’s true importance.

London’s Absolute Strategy Research divided the biggest European stocks into those with the greatest international exposure, and those that were most “European”.

By last month’s end, domestic stocks had shed 25 per cent since the eve of the Lehman bankruptcy three years earlier. The international stocks had gained 15 per cent.

International exposure, these days, means China.

So, investors want little to do with companies tied to the eurozone, as the debt crisis increases the chances of a renewed recession there. Those who could sell to China made a full recovery from the Lehman crisis; those who could not, did not.

A year ago, equity strategists at Deutsche Bank started dividing European stocks according to whether their chief exposures lay to the US, Latin America, eastern Europe or China. The result was dramatic. For all the US problems, American-exposed stocks have shed only 9 per cent in the past 12 months. China-exposed stocks have dropped 41 per cent, and were off nearly 50 per cent at one point.

Answer 1

中国不透明令投资者焦虑
欧元区危机看来只会不断加剧。上周末，在巴黎举行的发达国家二十国集团(G20)财政部长会议吸引了全世界的目光。这次会议试图在主权债务危机不断恶化之际，探讨出一个解决方案。

与此同时，美国长期失业率似乎顽固不化，美国总统的支持率大幅下跌，而将会在明年挑战总统位置的反对党热门候选人正在鼓吹一项显然不可行的，大幅改革美国税法的方案。

所有这些都构成了担忧的深层理由。然而投资者最大的担忧，却在于东方，这种担忧导致今年夏天全球股市大幅下挫。担忧的焦点已经转移到中国。

这种担忧并没有在金融或经济数据中得到正常的体现。不过这在很大程度上是因为，全球化极大地提高了金融分析的难度。按照地理位置对股票进行分类，已经越来越难以说明问题。集结了伦敦上市股票中市值最大个股的富时100指数(FTSE 100)或许就是最突出的例子。该指数由国际资源不过，美国标普500指数(S&P 500)也是如此，那些企业的大多数利润也并非来自于美国本土。企业主导，与英国经济的相关性即使存在，也已经十分微小。

不过，美国标普500指数(S&P 500)也是如此，那些企业的大多数利润也并非来自于美国本土。
现在，分析人士已经开始根据业务面向的地区，来评估企业经营状况，这些分析显示出中国真正的重要性。

伦敦的绝对战略研究中心(Absolute Strategy Research)将市值最大的欧洲个股分成两类，一类业务主要面向国际市场，另一类则主要面向欧洲。

从三年前雷曼兄弟(Lehman)破产前夕截止上个月底，业务主要面向欧洲内部的企业股价下跌了25%，而业务面向国际市场的企业则上涨了15%。

现如今，面向国际就意味着面向中国。

所以，在债务危机增大了欧元区再次出现衰退可能性之际，投资者希望尽量撇清与欧元区相关企业的关系。那些能够向中国销售产品服务的企业，已经完全从雷曼危机中复苏。不能向中国出口的企业则没有。

一年前，德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的证券策略师们开始根据企业主要业务面向美国、拉美、东欧还是中国，对欧洲个股进行分类。其结果颇富戏剧性。虽然美国经济问题众多，但业务面向美国的个股在过去12个月中仅下跌9%。业务面向中国的个股则下挫41%，跌幅一度还曾达到50%。

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