Question

光伏行业的现状和将来？

小弟找工作可能有机会从事这个行业，听说现在这行不景气，不知这行业前景如何，最近几年可能有发展前途吗？请指教！

Answer 1

随着光伏行业的快速发展，新技术、新产品不断涌现，对光伏展的招商提出了更高的要求。未来光伏展需要更加注重展示创新技术和解决方案，吸引更多具有创新能力的企业参展；同时，随着国际化程度的提高，展会需要加强国际合作与交流，拓展海外市场。

Answer 2

光伏(Photovoltaic)：是太阳能光伏发电系统(Solar power system)的简称，是一种利用太阳电池半导体材料的光伏效应，将太阳光辐射能直接转换为电能的一种新型发电系统，有独立运行和并网运行两种方式。

同时，太阳能光伏发电系统分类，一种是集中式，如大型西北地面光伏发电系统;一种是分布式(以>6MW为分界)，如工商企业厂房屋顶光伏发电系统，民居屋顶光伏发电系统。

截至2020年我国光伏市场累计装机量为253GW，新增装机量为48.2GW。2020年我国光伏新增装机中集中式装机32.7GW，我国光伏市场并网装机主要集中在Q4，2020年Q4并网装机为29.4GW。

截至2020年我国光伏市场累计装机量为253GW，新增装机量为48.2GW

截至2020年我国光伏市场累计装机量为253GW，2020年新增装机量为48.2GW，同比增长60%。2020年我国光伏发电量为2605 kWh，同比增长16.2%，占总发电量比重3.5%。

2020年我国光伏新增装机中集中式装机32.7GW

2020年我国光伏新增装机容量为48.2GW，其中集中式装机32.7GW，分布式装机15.5GW。

我国光伏市场并网装机主要集中在Q4，2020年Q4并网装机为29.4GW

2019-2020年期间我国光伏市场并网装机主要集中在Q4，2020年Q4我国光伏市场并网装机为29.4GW，远大于Q1-3装机容量。

2020年1-11月我国户用光伏市场装机量总体呈逐月增长态势，装机容量集中在Q4。2020年11月我国户用光伏市场装机量为3497MW，远高于其他月份。

2020年我国光伏制造端中国多晶硅产量为39.2万吨，电池片产量为134.8GW，硅片产量为161.3GW，组件产量为124.6万吨。

—— 以上数据及分析均来自于前瞻产业研究院《中国光伏发电行业市场需求与投资战略规划分析报告》。

Answer 3

2011, the technology low, low investment, short construction period of the PV industry in the next ** Industry - battery and components industry, in turn staged a "making money on the herd, the herd on the excess capacity "reincarnation. Since 2009, as the European market, and a large number of orders coming from abroad, rekindled the capital of photovoltaic cells and modules crazy chase.
From a volume perspective, the second quarter of this year, Suntech shipments up by 192%; Yingli up by 151%; JA up by 304%; Artes up by 276%. From the net, the first half, up all these leading companies to profitability, Trina Solar's net profit up by 9 times. The chain second half of 2009, Yingli by 440%; JA by 256%; LDK by 136%. From the gross margin perspective, the average margin of 2.2% from last year's first half, second half of the 14.5% to 18.6% in the first half of this year. From the cells and components of the production point of view, Suntech component production capacity in 2011 reached 1.8GW, an increase 29%; Jiangsu Artes battery capacity of 1.3GW, year on year by 63%; Trina Solar Components production capacity will reach 1.5GW, an increase 58%; JA photovoltaic cell production capacity will reach 1.8GW, an increase of 33%; Zhejiang Yuhui module production capacity will reach 600MW, up by 60%.
However, the recent decline in gross margin downstream industry chain has begun warning risk. LDK, Yao Feng said, "the first half of the battery, high-margin components, but the second half of the silicon material and silicon high margin, low-margin cells and modules." Has been high throw of nearly 30 million into the PV shopkeeper Magnetic insiders frankly stated that, from now, the field of photovoltaic cells fire will not last forever, after all technical barriers are not high, the upstream supply of silicon material is the bottleneck.
Brilliant ideas:
CLS experts for the status quo of China's PV industry expressed concerns about the combination of in-depth study of solar photovoltaic industry related business consulting project, the development of PV industry in China made a number of recommendations as follows:
1, "five" basic idea of ​​energy development plan has been formed, the new energy industry is the focus of the next five years. For the photovoltaic industry, it should be practical support to seize the country's industrial policy to promote intra-industry structural upgrading.
2, the field of technical barriers in photovoltaic cells is not high, if sales do not go up, leading to vicious competition, falling prices, solar companies will create 'double play' situation. Therefore, the strength of the photovoltaic business, should be upward chain integration, the formation of silicon material - silicon bar / ingot / silicon - Battery - components integrated business model, by controlling the chain of high-profit sectors to increase the added value.
3, as most companies are focused on photovoltaic cells and modules area, and in photovoltaic applications into smaller areas, so part of the PV business chain can be extended to applications such as solar water heaters and so on.
4, ** PV industry is a need to advocate and support the industry, many countries ** Over the last decade, have introduced a number of incentives to develop solar photovoltaic industry. ** China should introduce more policies to support the development of photovoltaic industry, especially in the application of PV should vigorously support and advocacy, to get rid of the photovoltaic project "does not re-reconstruction" situation.
5, solar companies to combine their strengths and integrated development of the industry trend, a clear future direction for their own market positioning and product mix to make the necessary adjustments.
6, the photovoltaic industry is highly competitive, companies must give full play to the PV capital leverage, through the stock market, bonds and other ways to finance and to consider the adoption of the Combination by leaps and bounds.
7, with the strength of the photovoltaic business through strong cooperation with local ** to build large-scale industrial base, to form a culture of leisure and "PV - carbon," featuring "production, home, business, travel" comprehensive of the city.
8, through the core technology innovations (such as third-generation photovoltaic technology - concentrating technology), barriers to entry to improve industry, raise the level of competition in the PV business.
9, photovoltaic companies need to build a strategy-based control system, through internal control improvement, to achieve the strategic objectives landing.
10, the industry needs to improve the awareness and level of risk management, pay close attention to the international upstream and downstream market trends, while minimizing changes to the photovoltaic industry, international exchange rate impact.
CLS experts believe that despite China's PV industry has developed rapidly, but in the photovoltaic applications, and no breakthroughs, but the basic domestic solar companies in the midstream and downstream industry chain, subject to the upstream supply of raw materials and foreign market and exchange rate changes. Therefore, the PV industry must accelerate the process of industrial upgrading, supply and sales to get rid of the "double kill" dilemma. Meanwhile, the PV industry as a typical new energy industry, CLS strongly urged countries with more policy support to reduce the cost of production and technology, encourage technological innovation, promote the development of China's PV industry.
2011年，技术门槛低、投资少、建设周期短的光伏产业中下**业——电池和组件行业，又将上演“有钱赚就一哄而上，一哄而上就产能过剩、”的轮回。2009年以来，随着欧洲市场回暖，大批从国外飞来的订单，再度引发了资本对光伏电池和组件的疯狂追逐。
从出货量看，今年二季度，尚德出货量同比增192%；英利同比增151%；晶澳同比增304%；阿特斯同比增276%。从净利润看，上半年，这些龙头企业同比皆扭亏为盈，天合光能的净利同比增9倍。而环比2009年下半年，英利增440%；晶澳增256%；赛维增136%。从毛利率看，平均毛利从去年上半年的2.2%、下半年的14.5%增至今年上半年的18.6%。从电池片和组件的产能上看，无锡尚德2011年组件产能将达到1.8GW，同比增29%；江苏阿特斯电池产能达1.3GW，同比增63%；天合光能组件产能将达1.5GW，同比增58%；晶澳光伏电池产能将达1.8GW，同比增33%；浙江昱辉组件产能将达600MW，同比增60%。
然而，近期中下游产业链毛利的下降已经开始警示风险。赛维LDK的姚峰表示，“上半年电池、组件毛利高，但下半年硅料和硅片毛利高，电池和组件毛利率低。”已豪掷近30亿进军光伏的横店东磁内部人士坦陈，从现在来看，光伏电池领域不可能永远持续红火，毕竟技术壁垒不高，上游硅料供给也是瓶颈。
华彩观点：
华彩专家对于我国光伏产业的现状深表忧虑，在深入研究光伏行业结合光伏企业的相关咨询项目，对我国光伏产业的发展提出如下若干建议：
1、“十二五”能源发展规划的基本思路已经形成，新能源产业是未来五年发展的重点。对于光伏产业来说，应该切实抓住国家的产业扶持政策，推进产业内部的结构性升级。
2、光伏电池领域技术壁垒不高，如果销量涨不上去，恶性竞争导致价格不断下滑，将对光伏企业造成‘双杀’的局面。因此，对于有实力的光伏企业，应该进行产业链的向上整合，形成硅料—硅棒/硅锭/硅片—电池—组件一体化的商业模式，通过控制产业链的高利润环节来增加附加值。
3、由于大部分光伏企业都集中在电池和组件领域，而在光伏的应用环节投入较少，因此部分光伏企业可以将产业链拓展到应用领域，如光伏热水器等。
4、光伏产业是一个需要**大力倡导和扶持的产业，很多国家**近十几年来，相继出台了不少鼓励政策来发展光伏产业光伏。中国**应该推出更多的政策支持光伏产业的发展，特别是在光伏的应用上应该大力扶持与倡导，摆脱对光伏项目“重建不重用”的局面。
5、光伏企业要结合自身的优势以及整合行业的发展趋势，明确未来的发展方向，对自身的市场定位及产品结构进行必要的调整。
6、光伏行业竞争激烈，光伏企业必须充分发挥资本杠杆的作用，通过股票上市、债券等方式来进行融资，并考虑通过产融结合来实现跨越式发展。
7、具备实力的光伏企业可以通过与当地**的强力合作，打造大规模的产业基地，形成以文化休闲和“光伏-低碳”为特色的“产、居、商、旅”综合性城区。
8、通过核心技术的创新（如第三代光伏技术-聚光技术），提高产业进入的门槛，提升光伏企业竞争的层次。
9、光伏企业需要打造基于战略的管控体系，通过企业内部控制力的提升，来实现战略目标落地。
10、整个行业需要提高风险管理的意识和水平，密切关注国际上下游市场的变化趋势，同时尽可能减少国际汇率变化给光伏行业带来的冲击。
华彩专家认为，尽管我国的光伏产业发展迅速，但在光伏的应用领域并没有取得突破性进展，同时国内的光伏企业基本处于产业链的中下游，受制于上游原材料的供给和国外市场及汇率的变化。因此，光伏行业必须加快推进产业升级的进程，摆脱供给和销量“双杀”的困境。同时，光伏产业作为典型的新能源产业，华彩强烈呼吁国家以更多的政策扶持来降低企业生产和技术应用成本，鼓励企业技术创新，推动我国光伏产业发展。

Answer 4

先说我周围的实例吧：去年有两个同学进入这个行业，据他们说是打了一年的酱油。 另外两个同学读研就是这个方向，马上可以拿到小专利了。

但是。。。再看看现在的行业大背景：
1、产能过剩；前期的光伏产业发展蓬勃，利润优厚，大家看来算作国内的高端产业，于是商家蜂拥而至，大量生产导致利润陡降，更甚的是生产过剩，竞争加剧，扛不住的就要牺牲。
2、太依赖出口；难以想象的是，如此庞大的产业竟然90%依赖出口，人家不买了，提高关税了，你理所当然就死了！
3、政府制度；政府投入大量资金扶持光伏生产，有甜头啊，这必将吸引一众人入行，由此也导致了1中所说的状况；你想当初的国企为什么那么柔弱？俗话说“孩子还是自己的亲”！不是自己的企业，我管你生死呢！我拿到好处就行！现在的光伏也有这倾向，由最初的利润丰厚到薄利多销再到产能过剩！而国内对光伏应用稀少！ 难道中国的太阳不够大？生产了那么多，自己又不用。。。
现在的状况是，买家提高关税，你就充当了别人的廉价劳动力！又陷入了中国制造的圈子！

如果你想从事这行业，请关注如何开发国内市场。那将钱途无量！ 否则只是劳工，与工业革命时代的纺织工人无异！

Answer 5

目前发展仍然呈现持续增长的形势
根据中国光伏行业协会的预测，2021年我国光伏新增装机规模将继续保持增长，可能达到55吉瓦至65吉瓦，“十四五”时期国内年均光伏新增装机规模可能达到70吉瓦至90吉瓦。与此同时，国内电站大基地开发将成为发展趋势，大尺寸高功率产品将进入快速发展阶段。行业专家认为，接下来，“充电桩 光伏”“特高压 光伏”“大数据中心 光伏”等应用，也将给光伏产业带来更多的发展空间。

Answer 6

目前不要进来，过一两年再说，现在全行业基本已停滞了。