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随着股指期货的渐行渐近，对股票市场的影响已经逐步显现。工商银行、建设银行等超级大蓝筹占据了非常抢眼的位置，这与股指期货推出背景下机构投资者调整市场投资策略，重新配置投资品种，为未来鏖战股指期货进行前期准备等方面因素有极大的相关性。

显然，股指期货一旦推出后，股票市场将不再独立运行，股指期货市场交易策略将直接或者间接作用到股票现货市场。为了适应这一变化，投资者要在股票现货市场相应调整自己的投资策略。

股指期货推出对股票现货交易者行为的影响包括以下几个方面：

1、套利。目前，由于我国股票市场不存在卖空机制，因此股指期货只能正向套利，即买入股票同时卖空股指期货。为此，在股指期货推出的强烈预期下，券商和私募基金欲未来从事股指期货套利交易，必须拥有大量的股票现货筹码。国庆长假之后，股指期货推出时间的预期更加确切，众多打算开展股指期货套利业务的机构必然尽快收集筹码，建立多头股票组合，模拟沪深300(行情股吧)指数。股指期货的套利交易为沪深300指数中权重大、影响力大的股票提供了一个相当于期权的溢价，在股指期货推出前的相应估值应该考虑此期权价值的影响。据悉，目前几乎所有的创新类券商和很多私募基金正筹划利用股指期货上市初期套利收益丰厚的良好机遇开展股指期货套利业务。在股指期货推出之前，各种机构收集所需筹码的过程不会停止。

2、套期保值。作为一种规避股票投资组合系统性风险的交易，未来股指期货的套期保值交易的策略对目前股票市场也存在一定影响。机构虽然在较高价位购买沪深300的大盘股，如果当股指期货推出后价格下跌时，可以采用套期保值策略规避一部分系统性风险，对组合起到保险的作用。因而，机构投资者选择大盘股的过程中甚至可以有些肆无忌惮，这对普通投资者是一个警示。

3、投机。未来股指期货的投机交易策略对当前市场的影响有限，而在股指期货尚未推出的情况下，出于操纵市场目的的仅仅拉高股票现货指数，却由于无法同时做空股指期货在现阶段并不可行。

虽然当下正处于股指期货推出前市场不断挤出泡沫的阶段，但沪深300的权重股在市场中的相对估值优势和享有参与未来股指期货交易的期权溢价优势，关注沪深300指数中大盘成份股依然是目前条件下的明智投资策略。随着股指期货推出的日益临近，可以预期市场的“二八现象”会表现得更加明显，结构性分化趋势会更加突出；资金会向权重蓝筹股、有着良好成长性的优质股以及具备实质性资产重组预期的股票集中，而前期已经被市场炒作的绩差股则会被市场资金弱化，进而可能释放风险。投资者的资产配置策略应当注意这方面的变化

Answer 1

Appeared as index futures, the impact on the stock market has gradually become apparent. Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank, and other blue-chip Super occupy a very conspicuous position, and stock index futures introduced this context institutional investors adjusted market investment strategy, re-allocation of investment for the future invisible stock index futures for the front-end factors, such as a great relevance.

Obviously, if the introduction of stock index futures, the stock market will no longer be run independently, stock index futures market trading strategy will be directly or indirectly to the stock role of the spot market. In order to adapt to this change, investors in the stock should be adjusted accordingly spot market their investment strategies.
1、Arbitrage. At present, China's stock market mechanism does not exist short selling, stock index futures arbitrage can only be positive, that is, buy the shares at the same time short-selling stock index futures. Therefore, in the stock index futures expected to launch a strong, brokers and private equity fund to the next in the stock index futures arbitrage trading, the stock must have a lot of bargaining chips in the spot. National Day holiday, stock index futures expected timing more precise, many intend to carry out stock index futures arbitrage business collection agency as soon as possible bargaining chips inevitable, the establishment of multiple portfolio, simulation Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (Quotes shares bar) index. Stock futures arbitrage transactions in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of major, major influence on the stock options provide an equivalent of the premium in the stock index futures before the launch of the corresponding valuation should take into account the impact of this option value. It is learnt that almost all the categories of innovation brokers and many private equity fund is planning to use stock index futures arbitrage initial listing a good opportunity for substantial gains in stock index futures arbitrage operations. In the introduction of stock index futures, various agencies collect the necessary chips process will not stop.
2, hedging. As a stock portfolio to avoid systemic risk transactions, the future stock index futures hedging transactions on the current stock market strategy also affected to some extent. Although the high level of institutions in Shanghai and Shenzhen to buy 300 shares of the market, if the introduction of stock index futures when prices fell, hedging strategy can be used to avoid systemic risk part of the mix played the role of insurance. As a result, institutional investors choice in the process of market shares even some unscrupulous, and this is a warning to ordinary investors.
3, speculation. Stock Index Futures future speculative trading strategy on the current limited impact on the market, and stock index futures had not yet launched the circumstances, for the purpose of market manipulation only拉高spot index stocks, but not at the same time as stock index futures trader at this stage can not be OK.

Although the present is in the stock index futures market before the launch of the extrusion bubble phase, but the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 heavyweights in the market valuation of the relative advantages and the right to participate in future stock index futures options premium advantage of concern Shenzhen 300 index Shares in the market is still under the conditions of sensible investment strategy. With the introduction of stock index futures is approaching, the market can be expected "February 8 phenomenon" will be shown even more significantly, the structural differentiation trend will be even more pronounced; funds to the weight of blue chips, have a good quality growth stocks as well as a substantial assets expected to focus on reorganization of the stock, and has been pre-speculation market shares would be the Jicha funds in the market to weaken, then the risk may be released. Investors should pay attention to asset allocation strategy in this area changes.

Answer 2

Along with futures of gradually the line be gradually near and influence stock market have already gradually presented.Industry and business bank, construction bank's etc. was super and big and blue to raise to occupy to rob the position of eye very much, this with the futures release background to descend organization investor adjustment market investment strategy, relocation investment species, for future Ao war the futures carry on an ex- period's preparation's etc.'s aspect factor to have biggest of relativity.

Obviously, futures once release, stock market won't again independence circulate, futures market trade strategy will direct perhaps indirect function arrive stock spot market.For the sake of orientation this variety, the investor want to correspond to adjust in the stock spot market oneself of investment strategy.

The futures release behavior to the stock spot economy of influence include the following a few aspect:

1, arbitrage.Currently, because of our country the stock market be nonexistent short sale mechanism, because of this futures can just to the arbitrage, namely buying stock in the meantime sell short futures.Is this, at the futures release of mightiness under the expectation, coupon company with private collect fund desire future be engaged in futures arbitrage trade, have to own a great deal of of stock stock on hand counter.Great occasion of nation long leave after, the futures release time of expectation Be getting more accurate, numerous plan open an exhibition futures arbitrage the organization of the business inevitable as soon as possible collections counter, establishment several stock combination, imitate Hu deep 300(condition of the market) index number.The arbitrage of the futures trade for the Hu deep the power in 300 index numbers graveness, influence big of the stock provided a premium price of equal to option, at the futures release before of correspond to estimate value should consideration this option value of influence.According to know, almost all currently of innovation type coupon company with a lot of private collect a fund to be plan and prepare exploitation futures to appear on market initial stage the big good opportunity of the arbitrage income open an exhibition futures arbitrage business.The futures release before, the process of counter that various organization collections need can't stop.

2, set the period protect a value.Conduct and actions a kind of evade the stock portfolio system risk of trade, future futures of set period protect a value trade of strategy rightness currently stock market also existence certain influence.Although the organization is in the higher price purchase Hu deep 300, if when the futures release behind price slump, can adoption set period protect value strategy evade a part system risk, have the function of insurance to combination.As a result, even can be some in the process of the choice big dish of the organization investor reckless, this to common the investor be a caution.

3, speculation.Future futures of speculation trade strategy rightness current market of influence limited, but under the circumstance that futures haven't release proceed from manipulating an only pull of the market purpose Gao stock stock on hand index number, but because of can't in the meantime do empty futures at present stage combine can't line.

Although at that moment and just be placed in futures to release a previous session field continuously extrude foam of stage, Hu deep 300 are in the market of opposite estimate value advantage with possess to participate future futures trade of option premium price advantage, concern Hu deep 300 index number in the big dish composition be still currently under the condition of wise investment strategy.Along with the futures release of day by day close by, can expectation the market"28 phenomenons"s meeting performance more obvious, structure's dividing trend will be getting more outstanding;Funds would to power heavy blue raise and have good growth of superior quality and have a materiality property a reorganization expectation of stock concentration, but front the period have already been fry by the market to make of merit bad then will be weaken by the market funds, then may release risk.The property allocation strategy of investor should attention this aspect of variety