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三、问题分析:3.1问题1的分析:在背景综述中,我们进行了Ebola和SARS、Aids的比较。Ebola具有传染病的普遍特点,因此,对SARS和Aids的研究结论是值得... 三、问题分析:
3.1 问题1的分析:
在背景综述中,我们进行了Ebola和SARS、Aids的比较。Ebola具有传染病的普遍特点,因此,对SARS和Aids的研究结论是值得借鉴的。但是,Ebola在传播途径和表现症状、康复后的传染能力等方面和其他传染病有区别,因此,对SARS和Aids的研究结论是不完全适用于Ebola的。
首先,根据Ebola的特性,可以将人群分为易感人群(S)、潜伏期(E)、染病人群(I)、隔离人群(Q)和康复人群(R)。根据假设【】,对于那些目前还没有发现疫情的地区和国家,这些地区的传染源只有输入性传染源,即是从发病地区迁入的传染源。而在发病地区,只通过人与人之间的接触才会传播,不考虑和灵长类动物的传播以及果蝇等传染源的传播。
这是一个显然的事实,对于一些重大的传染性疾病,政府部门是不会放任疫情自由扩散的。当疫情比较严重时,政府部门会采取宣传教育、加强监管、控制传播途径等手段降低传染率。因此,传染率会收到疫情的影响,当疫情严重时,传染率由于干预作用会减小。这个规律和研究人口增长的Logistic模型是一致的,在Logistics人口模型中,人口增长的自然增长率会受到人口数量的限制,而传染病的数量在该地区和国家也是有一个容许上限的限制的。因此,可以认为Ebola的扩散服从Logistic函数。所以,我们希望采用Logistic模型来描述Ebola的传播,并且收集相关的数据来验证传播模型。
3.2 问题2 的分析:
问题2我们主要研究的是医疗药品的配送策略。在策略中,我们需要确定疫情的传染,药品的配送数量,配送点,配送方式和药物的生产速度等因素的影响。所以,我们的研究思路首先是对发生疫情的地区和国家进行疫情严重情况进行赋权,得到不同发病地区的疫情状况,从而配送相应数量的药物。
根据问题(1)的Ebola传播模型,分析不同地区和国家的疫情情况。在这个过程中,可以采用动态多指标决策(dynamic multiple attribute decision making,DMADM)的方法。动态多指标决策问题是一类具有时间、指标和方案的三维决策排序问题。在文中,采用投影寻踪(PP)技术和多指标决策理论中的理想点法(the ideal point method,IPM)相结合处理DMADM问题的方法,PP-DMADM,并结合数据进行实例验证。
针对疫情严重的发病区,药物配送策略分为两个阶段,第一个阶段是疫情很严重的时候,
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2015-02-08
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Three, problem analysis:
3.1 the analysis of the question 1:
In the background review, we conducted which, the comparison of Aids and SARS. Which has the common features of infectious diseases, therefore, the study of SARS and Aids conclusion is worthy of reference. But which in the route of transmission and the symptom, the transmission ability of after rehabilitation, and other infectious diseases have the difference, therefore, the study of SARS and Aids conclusion is not completely suitable for which.
First of all, according to the characteristics of which, people can be divided into susceptible (S), the incubation period (E), HIV cases (I), isolated populations (Q) and rehabilitation group (R). According to assume 【 】, for those not yet found the outbreak of regions and countries, these areas are only imported source of infection, namely from the source of infection of disease region to move in. And in the region, only can spread through the contact between people, not to consider and the spread of primates and the spread of infection, such as fruit flies.
This is a clear fact, for some of the major infectious diseases, government departments are not allowed the spread of disease free. When serious epidemic, the government department will take propaganda education, strengthening the supervision and control of transmission means to reduce the infection rate. Infection rate, therefore, will receive the influence of the outbreak, when SARS epidemic, the infection rate tends to decrease due to the intervention effect. And research on the Logistic model of population growth is consistent, in the population of Logistics model, natural growth rate of population growth will be constrained by the number of population, and the number of infectious diseases in the region and the country is also a permissible limit restrictions. Therefore, can think the spread of which obey the Logistic function. So, we hope that the Logistic model to describe the propagation of which, spread and collect related data to verify the model.
3.2 the analysis of the problem 2:
Question 2 we mainly is the study of the medical drug distribution strategy. In strategy, we need to identify the epidemic infection, drug delivery quantity, PeiSongDian, distribution and the drug to the factors of production speed. Therefore, our research idea is first to the outbreak of regions and countries with the serious situation of empowerment, get to different areas of epidemic situation, thus distribution corresponding number of drugs.
According to the problem (1) which propagation model, analysis of epidemic situation of different regions and countries. In the process, can be used in a dynamic multiple attribute decision making (dynamic multiple attribute decision making, DMADM) method. Dynamic multiple attribute decision making problem is a class of time, indicators and scheme of three-dimensional decision-making scheduling problems. In this paper, using the projection pursuit (PP) technology and the ideal point method in the theory of multiple attribute decision making (the ideal point method, IPM) combined processing DMADM problem, PP - DMADM, and examples of data validation.
In view of the serious epidemic disease areas, drug distribution strategy is divided into two phases, the first phase is the epidemic is very serious,
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