Question

跪求此篇文章的英文翻译，望高手行个方便~~

风险定量分析过程目的是对每项风险的发生概率及其对项目目标的影响，以及项目整体风险的程度进行数值分析。该项过程采用蒙特卡洛模拟与决策分析等项技术，以便：
·确定实现具体项目目标的概率。
·量化项目蒙受风险的程度，并确定所需成本的大小并安排所需的应急储备。
·通过量化各项风险对项总体风险的影响，确定应特别重视的风险。
·确定现实和可以实现的成本、进度或范围目标。
风险定量分析一般在风险定性分析之后进行。它要求先识别风险。风险定性分析和风险定量分析过程可分别进行，也可结合进行。采用何种方法取决于时间 、有无该预算， 以及对风险及其后果进行定性或定量描述的必要性。重复进行风险定量分析所得的结果趋势可揭示是需要增加还是减少风险管理行动。
定量风险分析的投入
.1 风险管理计划。
.2 已识别风险。
.3 按轻重缓急排序的风险清单。
.4 需要再分析与管理的风险清单。
.5 历史资料。指以往已完成的相似项目的资料、风险专家对相似项目的研究结果、以及可从行业或厂商自身拥有来源得到的风险数据库。
.6 专家判断。风险定量分析的投入可以来自于项目班子、组织内其他课题专家，以及组织以外的其他人。其它信息来源还包括工程专家或者统计专家。
.7 其他规划产出。最有用的规划产出包括确定进度时所使用的项目内在逻辑和工期估算、工作分解结构所列出的所有成本要素清单连同成本估算、以及项目技术目标的范例。
风险定量分析的工具和技术
.1 面谈。面谈技术用于对风险概率及其对项目目标产生的后果进行量化。与项目利害关系者和课题专家面谈可能是风险量化的第一步。所需的信息取决于所拟采用的概率分布类型。例如，如果采用三角分布，则应搜集乐观（低）、悲观（高）与最可能发生的情况的相关资料；如采用正态分布与对数正态分布，则应搜集平均值与标准差的资料。
在风险定量分析中通常采用连续概率分布。分布既表示项目组成部分的概率，也表示其后果。常用的分布类型包括均匀分布、正态分布、三角分布、贝塔分布和对数正态分布。
将风险值域设定的理由形成文字记载是风险面谈的一个重要的组成部分，它有助于提出有效的风险应对策略。
.2 敏感性分析。敏感性分析有助于确定哪些风险对项目具有最大的潜在影响。它在所所有其它不确定因素保持基准值的条件下，考察项目每项要素的不确定性对目标产生多大程度的影响。
.3 决策树分析。决策分析通常按决策树的形式进行。决策树是对所考虑的决策以及采用这种或者那种其它现有方案可能产生的后果进行描述的一种图解方法。它综合了风险的概率、每条事件逻辑路径的成本或者收益、以及应采取的未来决策。决策树的求解表明，当所有的不确定后果、成本、收益、与随后的决策全部量化之后，哪一项决策能为决策者带来最大的期望值。
.4 模拟。项目模拟用一个模型将详细规定的各项不确定性换算为它们对整个项目层次上的目标所产生的潜在影响。项目模拟一般用蒙特卡洛技术进行。
对于成本风险分析，模拟可用传统的项目工作分解结构作为模型。对于进度风险分析，可用优先顺序图法（PDM）进度。
风险定量分析的产出
.1 按轻重缓急排序的量化风险清单。此项风险清单包括对项目造成最大威胁或为项目提供最大机会的风险，以及对其影响的量度。
.2 项目的概率分析。项目潜在进度与成本结果的预报，并列出可能的竣工日期或项目工期与成本及其可信度水平。
.3 实现成本和时间目标的概率。采用目前的计划以及目前对项目所面临的风险的了解，可用风险定量分析方法估算出实现项目目标的概率。
.4 风险定量分析结果的趋势。在分析重复进行过程中，结果的趋势可能会变得显而易见。

Answer 1

Quantitative risk analysis process for the purpose of each of the risk and probability of the occurrence of the objectives of the project, the overall risk of the project, as well as the extent of numerical analysis. The process of using Monte Carlo simulation and decision analysis technology items to:
To identify specific projects to achieve the goal of probability.
Quantify the extent of the risk on the project and to determine the costs of the necessary arrangements and the size of the contingency reserve.
Through quantitative risk of the overall risk of the impact, particular attention should be paid to determine the risk.
To determine a realistic and achievable cost, or the progress of the target range.
Quantitative risk analysis of the qualitative analysis of risk in the general after. It requires first identifying the risks. Risk analysis and risk analysis process can be carried out, can also be combined. The method used depends on the time, whether or not the budget, as well as the risks and consequences of the qualitative or quantitative description of the need. Risk to repeat the results of quantitative analysis can reveal the trend is increasing or decreasing the need for risk management operations.
Quantitative risk analysis of investment
.1 Risk management plan.
.2 Has been to identify risk.
.3 Sorted by priority list of risks.
.4 Need to risk analysis and management of the list.
.5 Historical data. Referring to the past, similar projects have been completed, the risk of experts similar to the results of the research project, as well as from industry or manufacturers have their own sources of risk database.
.6 Experts to judge. Quantitative risk analysis can be input from the project team, other organizations, experts, as well as others outside the organization. Other sources of information include engineering expert or experts in statistics.
.7 Other planning output. The most useful in the planning, including output used to determine the progress of the project period and estimates the inherent logic, work breakdown structure set out in the cost of all the elements together with a list of cost estimates, as well as the technical goal of the project an example.
Quantitative risk analysis tools and techniques
.1 Interview. Interview techniques used on the probability of risk and its impact on the objectives of the project to quantify the consequences. With the project stakeholders and experts interviewed could quantify the risk is the first step. Information needed to be adopted depends on the type of probability distribution. For example, if the triangular distribution, collection should be optimistic about the (low), pessimistic (high) and the most likely scenario for the relevant information; such as log-normal distribution and normal distribution should be collected with the average standard deviation of the Information.
Quantitative risk analysis is usually continuous probability distribution. Distribution is an integral part of the project, said the probability that the consequences. Common types include the distribution of uniform distribution, distribution, distribution of 30 cents, and the distribution of beta log-normal distribution.
Risk range set by the written reasons for the formation of face-to-face risk is an important part of it will help come up with effective strategies to deal with risks.
.2 Sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis to determine which contribute to the risk of the project have the greatest potential impact. It all Among the other factors of uncertainty to maintain the value of the base under the conditions of inspection items for each element of uncertainty to what extent the objectives.
.3 Decision tree analysis. Analysis of the decision-making is usually based on the decision tree form. The decision tree is taken into account in decision-making and the use of this or that other existing programs could have consequences for a graphic description of the method. It combines the probability of risk, the logical path of each incident, or the cost of revenue, as well as the decision to be taken in the future. Solving the decision tree shows that when all the consequences of uncertainty, costs, earnings, and all subsequent decision-making to quantify, which decision-making for policy makers to bring about the greatest expectations.
.4 Simulation. Using a simulation model of the project will detail the various provisions of uncertainty for the conversion of the entire project on their level of the target generated by the potential impact. Project Monte Carlo simulation technology for general use.
The cost of risk analysis, simulation can be used break down the traditional structure of the project as a model. The progress of risk analysis can be used in the order of priority Library (PDM) progress.
Quantitative risk analysis of the output
Sort by .1 priority to quantify the risk list. The risk of the project, including a list of the greatest threats to the project or to provide the greatest opportunities for risk, as well as its impact on the measure.
.2 Probability analysis of the project. The progress of the project and the potential cost of the results of the forecast, and may list the date of completion of the project or the cost of its construction period and the level of credibility.
.3 Cost and time to achieve the goal of probability. The current plan, as well as the current project on the risks to the understanding of quantitative risk analysis methods can be used to estimate the probability of the objectives of the project.
.4 Quantitative risk analysis. In the analysis of repeated, the results of the trend is likely to become apparent.