Question

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The dollar has been gaining ground more broadly in recent months (see chart). This seems largely due to America’s relatively strong recovery (by the rich world’s feeble standards) and the perception that this will lead the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than other central banks. The market’s view of when the first rate rise will come has varied a lot, but the Fed’s latest statement was seen as fairly hawkish; the current consensus is some time in November or December next year. Those investors who like to play the “carry trade”—borrowing money in a low-yielding currency to invest in a higher-yielding one—can already exploit the big gap in yields between Treasury bonds and German or Japanese government debt. Higher short-term interest rates will give them another incentive to buy the dollar.
For Japan, a weaker yen is broadly positive. It pushes up inflation by raising the cost of imports and boosts the prospects of Japanese exporters by making them more competitive in global markets. Exchange rates are a zero-sum game, however: if Japanese exporters gain market share, some other country’s exporters must lose it. And if competition from Japan forces producers in other countries to lower their prices, the effect could be to export deflation to the rest of the world.

Answer 1

美元近几个月已经取得进展更广泛(见图表)。这似乎很大程度上是由于美国相对强劲的复苏(发达国家的软弱的标准),认为这将导致美联储早于其他央行提高利率。从市场角度来看,当第一个加息会变化很多,但美联储的最新声明被视为相当强硬;目前的共识是在明年11月或12月。那些喜欢玩“套利交易”的投资者借贷资金低息货币,投资于高收益已经可以利用大国债收益率之间的差距和德国或日本政府债务。提高短期利率会给他们另一个激励购买美元。
　　对日本来说,日元走弱是广泛积极的。它通过提高进口成本推高通货膨胀,促进日本出口商的前景使他们在全球市场的竞争力。然而,汇率是一个零和游戏:如果日本出口商获得市场份额,其他一些国家的出口商必须失去它。如果来自日本的竞争迫使生产商在其他国家降低价格,效果可能是向世界其他国家出口通货紧缩。