Question

求字幕翻译~~~~~~~~

January's first five days of trading provide what Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac calls an early warning system for the direction of the market over the next 12 months.
Jeff Hirsch joins me now with more. Jeff, how accurate is the so-called January Barometer when it comes to predicting what the market does for the rest of the year?
Well, the January Barometer is the full month barometer where you take the performance of the S&P 500. The first five days as an early warning indicator works really well when the days are up about 35 or 38 up years follow the first five days but when it's down, it's less than a 50-50 chance, 50%-50% chance time that it's followed. So the full month is more important and what we've seen is only seven major errors where the full year didn't not follow the direction of the S&P 500 in January since 1950. If you figure in all of the flat years where the year ended up or down less than 5%, you have another seven errors or times that it didn't work. So it's still about 77% accurate where the direction of the S&P in January gives you an idea of what goes on for the whole year. Does it matter that it's an election year? Does that impact the January Barometer at all? The odd-numbered years usually have more of an impact when new congresses were convening. It seems to be less of an impact in January in general. The most important part of it is that down Januaries, every single down January has either preceded a new bear market, a continuing bear market, a 10% correction or flat year. So when January's down, some thing's amiss and the market doesn't usually have a great year. What about the January Barometer portfolio? How does that work? How does it perform against the S&P 500? What we've seen is, you know, when the S&P is up in January, the top 10 performing sectors of the S&P outperform the S&P as a whole, so you can sort through and look for the best performing sectors in January. They do better throughout the year as well. I would love to just get your projections on how you think 2012 will fare.
Obviously, it's really on but what are your thoughts? Initially, I'm not overly optimistic. I'm mildly optimistic. I think we're going to have difficulty breaking through the old highs of last year. You know, Dow 12,800, 1,370 on the S&P. I think that's about as much as we have with the difficulty overseas with the sovereign debt crisis, the sort of gridlock we have and also the pretty heated election campaign battle we're about to embark upon. Jeff Hirsch, Stock Trader's Almanac, thanks so much. Thank you. I'm Rhonda Schaffler, this is Reuters.

Answer 1

翻仔做启译：
一月的第一个五天的交易提供什么，杰夫赫希的股市交易者年鉴电话预警系统的市场方向，在接下来的12个月。

杰夫和我现在有了更多的。杰夫，如何准确的是一月所谓的晴雨表，当谈到预测市场为剩下的一年？

嗯，一月全月晴雨表气压计是你的业绩标准普尔500指数。第一个五天作为一个早期预警指标的作品念如真的好日子大约35或38年的前五天，不过当它平静下来，它的不到一半的机会，50%- 50%的机会，它的后面。因此，全月更重要的是，我们看到的是只有七个主要错误，全年没有不遵循的方向标普500指数在一月以来的1950。如果你在所有平年年底向上或向下低于5%，你有另一个误差或七倍，它不工作。所以它仍然是77%的准确度的方向标普在一月给你一个什么样的想法上整整一年。它的问题，这是一个选举年？是否影响一月晴雨表呢？奇数年通常有更多的影响，当新的大会召开。它似乎是较少的影响，在一月一般。它最重要的部分是向下januaries，每一月或之前一个新的熊市，一个持续的熊市，10%修正或平水年。所以当一月的，有些事情不对劲，市场没有通常有一个伟大的一年。关于一月晴雨表组合？这是怎么回事呢胡毕？它如何执行对标准普尔500？我们看到的是，你知道，当标准普尔是在一月，排名前10的执行行业标准普尔超越标准普尔为一体，所以你可以通过寻找最佳执行部门在一月。他们做的更好，在整个一年为。我的爱只是让你预测你怎么想将票价2012。

显然，这是真的，你有什么想法？起初，我不太乐观。我略微乐观。我认为我们将会有困难，突破旧去年的高位。你知道，道指12800点，标普1370上我认为的一样，我们的困难，在海外的主权债务危机，这种僵局，我们也很激烈的竞选战役就要开始。杰夫赫希，股市交易者年鉴，太感谢了。谢谢你。我是朗达舒亚弗勒，这是路透社。