这篇文章的翻译 20
Manyofthe85millionpeopleinIrene’spath--fromtheCarolinastoMaine--hadnotexperiencedhurr...
Many of the 85 million people in Irene’s path -- from the Carolinas to Maine -- had not experienced hurricanes, or had only been through storms that were weaker,smaller and less damaging. For those unfamiliar with severe hurricanes, Irene was either abstract or not particularly frightening, something to get excited about more than to fear.
Given that the way we perceive(感觉) and respond to risk is affective -- not merely objectively analytical, but the sum of the facts and how scary those facts feel -- it was likely that many people might be ignorant of the storm’s threat.
So it was heartening to see how many did in fact take the warnings to heart and prepared. The long lines at grocery stores, the high demand for batteries and bottled water, and even the patience and understanding about local government orders to evacuate(撤离) or shut down mass transit systems, show that people took the potential danger seriously.
There are two possible lessons from this storm. As much as our affective risk perception system can sometimes produce a dangerous “perception gap” between our fears and the facts -- when we sometimes fear more than we need to, or less than we should -- it’s also reasonably good at recognizing risk when it’s staring us in the face. Though most of us didn’t lose power, we know that 7 million people did. Though most of us did not suffer property damage, we know that millions did. Most of us did not lose loved ones, but we know that at least 21 families did. We know hurricanes can be dangerous, even if for many of us this one wasn’t.
The other lesson is that rare risks do hide and can spring up with little or no warning, and few of us are prepared for those. Remember the East Coast earthquake last week?
It might have been annoying to wait in line for hours for those extra D batteries(干电池) or food supplies, but it was careful to do so, and it’s a good idea to keep them on hand. Just because a risk might not be staring us in the face or feel all that scary, it doesn’t mean that it doesn’t make sense to be ready. Just in case. 展开
Given that the way we perceive(感觉) and respond to risk is affective -- not merely objectively analytical, but the sum of the facts and how scary those facts feel -- it was likely that many people might be ignorant of the storm’s threat.
So it was heartening to see how many did in fact take the warnings to heart and prepared. The long lines at grocery stores, the high demand for batteries and bottled water, and even the patience and understanding about local government orders to evacuate(撤离) or shut down mass transit systems, show that people took the potential danger seriously.
There are two possible lessons from this storm. As much as our affective risk perception system can sometimes produce a dangerous “perception gap” between our fears and the facts -- when we sometimes fear more than we need to, or less than we should -- it’s also reasonably good at recognizing risk when it’s staring us in the face. Though most of us didn’t lose power, we know that 7 million people did. Though most of us did not suffer property damage, we know that millions did. Most of us did not lose loved ones, but we know that at least 21 families did. We know hurricanes can be dangerous, even if for many of us this one wasn’t.
The other lesson is that rare risks do hide and can spring up with little or no warning, and few of us are prepared for those. Remember the East Coast earthquake last week?
It might have been annoying to wait in line for hours for those extra D batteries(干电池) or food supplies, but it was careful to do so, and it’s a good idea to keep them on hand. Just because a risk might not be staring us in the face or feel all that scary, it doesn’t mean that it doesn’t make sense to be ready. Just in case. 展开
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许多8500万人在艾琳的路径——在卡罗来纳到缅因州,没有经历过飓风,或只有经历暴风雨,较弱,较小的和更少的破坏性。对于那些不熟悉严重飓风艾琳要么是抽象的或不是特别可怕,一件值得兴奋的事情超过恐惧。
鉴于我们的感觉和应对风险是情感——不仅仅是客观地分析,但总和的事实,这些事实如何可怕的感觉——这是可能的,许多人可能不知道暴风雨的威胁。
所以这是令人振奋的,看看有多少确实采取警告的心和准备。在杂货店的长队,高电池需求和瓶装水,甚至耐心和了解当地政府撤离命令或关闭大众运输系统,表明人们把潜在的危险严重。
有两个可能的教训这风暴。尽可能多的为我们的情感风险知觉系统有时可以产生一个危险的“认知差距”的恐惧和事实之间——当我们有时担心多于我们需要,或低于我们应该——它也是相当擅长识别风险当它在我们眼前。虽然我们大多数人没有失去权力,我们知道700万人做。虽然我们大多数人没有遭受财产损失,我们知道了数百万。我们大多数人没有失去所爱的人,但我们知道至少21个家庭确实。我们知道飓风可能是危险的,即使很多人这一个不是。
其他的教训是,罕见的风险做隐藏,可以出现在很少或没有预警,几人准备这些。记得上周在东海岸地震吗?
它可能是讨厌排队数小时,那些额外的干电池或食物供应,但它是小心,这是一个好主意来保持他们的手。仅仅因为一个风险可能并不在我们眼前或觉得那么可怕,但这并不意味着它没有意义做好准备。以防万一
鉴于我们的感觉和应对风险是情感——不仅仅是客观地分析,但总和的事实,这些事实如何可怕的感觉——这是可能的,许多人可能不知道暴风雨的威胁。
所以这是令人振奋的,看看有多少确实采取警告的心和准备。在杂货店的长队,高电池需求和瓶装水,甚至耐心和了解当地政府撤离命令或关闭大众运输系统,表明人们把潜在的危险严重。
有两个可能的教训这风暴。尽可能多的为我们的情感风险知觉系统有时可以产生一个危险的“认知差距”的恐惧和事实之间——当我们有时担心多于我们需要,或低于我们应该——它也是相当擅长识别风险当它在我们眼前。虽然我们大多数人没有失去权力,我们知道700万人做。虽然我们大多数人没有遭受财产损失,我们知道了数百万。我们大多数人没有失去所爱的人,但我们知道至少21个家庭确实。我们知道飓风可能是危险的,即使很多人这一个不是。
其他的教训是,罕见的风险做隐藏,可以出现在很少或没有预警,几人准备这些。记得上周在东海岸地震吗?
它可能是讨厌排队数小时,那些额外的干电池或食物供应,但它是小心,这是一个好主意来保持他们的手。仅仅因为一个风险可能并不在我们眼前或觉得那么可怕,但这并不意味着它没有意义做好准备。以防万一
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