Question

4.20雅安地震英文报道：雅安地震引发的地震预测思考

Answer 1

The news of the earthquake in Ya'an will once again pushed in the teeth of the storm prediction. How to run in front of the earthquake? This is not only the research challenges facing the field, more countless lives away from disaster to win precious time.

　　怎样才能做到比大地震早一步？该如何看待地震预测和地震预警？

How can we do that than earthquake early step? How to look at the earthquake prediction and earthquake early warning?

　　谁能预测地震

Who can predict earthquakes

　　雅安地震发生后，民间地震预测者引人关注。

Ya'an after the earthquake, earthquake prediction are folk concern.

　　4月14日凌晨，名为“预报中心”的微博发布了云南地震预报信息，称预计在云南东北昭通（余震）、大理西南部和腾冲交界区域，72小时内将发生5级浅源地震。

Early on the morning of April 14th, called "forecast" micro-blog issued the Yunnan earthquake prediction information, says it expects the Yunnan northeast Zhaotong (aftershocks), southwestern Dali and Tengchong at the junction region, there will be 5 shallow earthquakes within 72 hours.

　　4月17日，大理白族自治州洱源县与漾濞彝族自治县交界发生5.0级的浅源地震，与预测地点相隔近200公里，该微博因此被称为“预言帝”。

In April 17th, at the junction of Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture Eryuan and Yangbi Yi Autonomous County of 5 magnitude shallow earthquakes, and predict the sites separated by nearly 200 kilometers, the micro-blog is therefore called the "prophecy emperor".

　　由此，也有人质疑，此次地震，国家地震局为何没有在预测上有所作为？

Therefore, some people questioned, the earthquake, State Seismological Bureau, why not dosomethinpreviouslyunreleased in forecasting?

　　“到目前为止，没有任何人能作出准确的临震预报，这是全人类面临的科学难题”，中国地震台地震预报研究所研究员陈会忠表示。

"So far, no one can make the impending earthquake prediction accuracy, which is a scientific problem" facing the entire human race, a researcher at the Chinese earthquake prediction research seismic station Chen Huizhong said.

　　在他看来，大部分民间地震预测者并不是利用非常科学的方法进行推测，且推测的范围较大，对时间、地点、震级的说法均不确切，有的说“三五天内”，有的说“20天内”，地点可能涵盖四川、云南、陕西等一大片地区。全世界4级以下的地震每年发生500多万次，6级以上地震600多次。有的预测者发布多条预测信息，大多不准，“拿出来说的，只有准的那一次”。

In his view, most folk earthquake prediction is not used very scientific methods of speculation, and speculation on the large range, time, location, magnitude is not exact, some said "three five days", some said "20 days", where Sichuan, Yunnan, Shaanxi may cover a large area. The whole world earthquake of magnitude 4 the following year occurred about 5000000 times, more than 6 earthquake 600 times. Some forecasters issued a plurality of forecast information, most are not allowed, "say, only so that one".