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The restricted polynomial distributed lag (PDL) model is a reduced form capturing the impact of short-run costs of adjustment, expectations formation and habit preferences (Sims, 1980). A theoretical interpretation can be derived from the long-run solution to the model that defines an estimate of long-run conditional expectations of growth rates, inflation and returns. This model is Keynesian, giving a primary role for income and a secondary role for money as the variables forcing long-run average behaviour. In line with Keynes (1936, pp. 91–95), the propensity to consume is positively affected in the long run by personal disposable income, financial wealth as captured by windfalls and real money balances. There is also a roll for price misperceptions (Deaton, 1977) and the interest rate enters indirectly with a negative coefficient via excess returns. Persistence is embodied in the models via the difference formulation, so income and money as may be expected have a small effect on shifting the long-run consumption growth path of the economy. However, any policy to stimulate income and real money growth in the long run will shift consumption growth.
Real money growth in the long run, increases with a decline in long-run expected inflation, increases in balanced growth and a reduction in the extent to which income and consumption growth are out of line. Inflation is reduced by an increase in long-run excess returns and a decline in consumption growth, while the monetary transmission mechanism is Keynesian as the primary impact of money feeds through consumption growth. Following Dornbusch (1976), the change in long-run stock returns may well reflect information associated with price movements that are sluggish. Then, the long-run pricing formula is driven by the risk free rate with a unit coefficient and the long-run correlation of returns with consumption growth. The latter is consistent with a long-run multifactor or arbitrage pricing explanation of asset pricing.
The four-variable model is conditioned on income and where appropriate, corrected for the primary influence of volatility using univariate GARCH models. All the models satisfy conventional specification tests and are consistently and efficiently estimated by a feasible Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimator corrected for volatility.
In Section 2 we provide a brief literature review. Section 3 contains a discussion of data. Section 4 discusses the design of our methodology. Section 5 the SUR model and Section 6 summarizes the main findings.

Answer 1

限制多项式分布滞后（牙周）模型是一种形式捕捉减少的影响，短期成本的调整，预期的形成和习惯偏好（冼， 1980年） 。一种理论解释可以来自于长期的解决办法的模式，定义了一个估计的长期条件期望的增长率，通货膨胀率和回报。该模型是凯恩斯主义，放弃了主要作用的收入和次要作用，金钱作为变量迫使长期平均水平的行为。按照凯恩斯（ 1936年，页。 91-95 ）中，消费倾向是积极影响从长远来看，个人可支配收入，财政所反映的财富暴利和实际货币余额。此外，还推出了价格的误解（顿， 1977年）和利率进入间接负面系数通过超额回报。持久性，体现在通过不同模式的制定，使收入和金钱，可以预期有一个小的影响将长期消费增长路径的经济。然而，任何政策，以刺激和实际货币收入增长，从长远来看将转向消费增长。

实际货币增长，从长远来看，随着下降，长期通胀预期，增加平衡增长和减少的程度，收入和消费增长的脱节。通货膨胀率降低增加的长期回报和超额下降消费增长，而货币政策传导机制的凯恩斯主义为主要影响饲料的钱，通过消费增长。以下多恩布什（ 1976年） ，该变化的长期股票收益很可能反映了信息与价格变动的呆滞。然后，从长远来看定价公式是由无风险利率的单位系数和长期回报率的相关性与消费的增长。后者是符合长远多或套利定价解释资产定价。

四变量模型的条件是收入和在适当情况下，更正为主要波动影响使用单GARCH模型。所有的型号规格满足常规试验和一贯和有效地估计了一个可行的相依回归（卢布）估算纠正波动。

第2节中，我们提供了一个简短的文献回顾。第3节讨论了数据。第4节讨论的设计方法。第5节的卢布模型和第6节总结了主要结论。

Answer 2