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每周报告:下半年美国财政刺激力度放缓及其影响
2010年06月28日13:25海通证券我要评论(0) 字号：T|T
从联邦政府财政状况看,积极财政政策后续乏力。次贷危机爆发后,作为自动稳定器的积极财政政策在引领美国经济复苏的过程中发挥了重要作用。然而,受制于财政刺激计划的支出进程和令社会日趋担忧的财政赤字,下半年美国联邦政府财政刺激力度将会有所减弱。分季度来看,我们预计今年3 季度的联邦政府财政刺激力度仍会比较强劲,而4 季度则会大幅减弱,对GDP 增长率的直接贡献和间接贡献也将较大幅度地减少。
地方政府的财政状况堪忧,并在下半年会拖累经济增长。州及州以下政府税收收入同比增速自次贷危机以来出现明显下滑,而房地产市场持续低迷和个人收入增长缓慢等因素使地方税收短时间难以出现大幅改善。同时,联邦政府对地方政府转移支付在下半年也将逐渐减少。由于地方政府财政收入状况(包括税收和联邦转移支付)在下半年难有起色,甚至会比上半年略差一些,地方政府购买会是GDP 增长率的负向拉动因素。
再出台大规模经济刺激计划的可能性很小。除非美国经济陷入二次探底的泥淖中,在欧洲各国着力削减财政赤字的背景下,额外的经济刺激法案越来越难获得通过。
经济刺激法案在国会审理和表决的流程将冗长拖沓,即使最终获得通过,也会大幅缩水,从而降低了其经济刺激效果。
在积极财政刺激力度放缓的背景下,宽松货币政策料将持续。在财政刺激力度下降、通胀受抑制和产能利用率不足的背景下,宽松的货币政策料将持续,上周美联储FOMC 会议释放的消息也证实了这点。另外,上周公布的成屋和新屋房地产销售数据印证了我们年初以来的判断,即下半年房地产市场的低迷趋势难改。我们维持下半年美国经济增长率趋缓的判断。

Answer 1

Each week report: Second half year American finance stimulation dynamics postpones and affects
in 2010 6yue28 the date 13:25 sea to pass the negotiable securities I to need to comment (0) words: T|T
Looking from the federal state finance condition, positive financial policy following asthenia.After the loan crisis eruption, took the automatic stabler the positive financial policy in eagerly anticipated the American economic resurgence in the process to play the vital role.However, is restrained the financial stimulation plan disbursement advancement and the financial deficit which was worried day by day the society, second half year US Federal state finance stimulation dynamics will be able to have is weaken.A minute quarter looked that, we estimated the this year 3rd quarter federal state finance stimulation dynamics still could quite be strong, but the 4th quarter could be weaken largely, to GDP rate of increment direct contribution and indirect contribution also great scope reduction.
Local authority's financial condition endures sorrow, and can implicate the economical growth in the second half year.Below the state and the state the government tax revenue income with has appeared compared to the speed-up since the loan crisis glides down obviously, but the real estate market continues murky and the personal income grows and so on the factors to cause the place tax revenue short time slowly to appear the large improvement with difficulty.At the same time, the federal state will shift the payment to the local authority also gradually to reduce in the second half year.Because the local authority financial revenue condition (including tax revenue and federation shift payment) difficult to show improvement after illness in the second half year, even can compared to first half year bad somewhat, the local authority purchase slightly can be the GDP rate of increment negative drawing factor.
Again appears the large-scale economical stimulation plan the possibility to be very small.Only if the American economy falls into two times searches the bottom in the morass, exerts oneself the reduction financial deficit in the European various countries under the background, the extra economical stimulation bill is more and more difficult to obtain passes.
The economical stimulation bill will try and the vote flow in Congress is long dilatory, even if will finally obtain passes, also will be able the large synaeresis, thus will reduce its economical stimulation effect.
Postpones in the positive financial stimulation dynamics under the background, the loose monetary policy material will continue.Drops, the bloating in the financial stimulation dynamics is suppressed and will produce under the background which can the use factor be insufficient, the loose monetary policy material will continue, last week the Federal Reserve FOMC conference released the news also confirmed this spot.Since moreover, has announced last week becomes the room and the new room real estate sale data has verified us beginning of the year the judgment, namely the second half year real estate market hastens the circumstances make it difficult to change murkily.We maintain second half year US economic growth rate becoming slower the judgment.

Answer 2

Weekly report: half America slowed and fiscal stimulus efforts
On June 28, by 2010, behold, I will review the haitong securities (0) name: T | T
From the federal government finances look weak positive fiscal policy and follow-up. The subprime crisis, as automatic stabilisers positive fiscal policy in the us in the process of economic recovery has played an important role. However, the subject of fiscal stimulus plan to social progress and spending more concern fiscal deficit, the second half of the federal government fiscal stimulus efforts will be weakened. Points are expected this year, our quarter 3 quarter of federal government fiscal stimulus efforts will compare strong, but in the fourth quarter will greatly abate, the contribution to GDP growth directly and indirectly contribute greatly to reduce will also.
Local government fiscal upper-management shakeups and economic growth in the second half will drag. State and under state government revenue from the subprime crisis year-on-year growth since, apparent real estate market downturn and sustained growth factors such as the individual income tax for a short time that it greatly improved. At the same time, the federal government to local governments will transfer payment in the second half. Due to the local government revenue (including tax and federal transfer payment) in the second half of difficult to recover, even slightly less than half, some local governments will buy the GDP growth is a negative factor.
Then on large-scale economic stimulus package. Unless the American economy into a second agent in the mud at the bottom of the European countries, to reduce the budget deficit, under the background of the extra stimulus bill more difficult.
Economic stimulus bill in congress and the voting process of trial will eventually, even long delays by, also can have slashed, thus reduces their economic stimulus effect.
In active fiscal stimulus efforts, under the background of the slowdown looser monetary policy will continue. In fiscal stimulus efforts, inflation inhibition and insufficient capacity utilization, under the background of the looser monetary policy will continue late-march FOMC meeting last week, the federal reserve, the news release also confirmed that. In addition, announced last week into house and new housing estate sales data confirm us since the beginning of the second half, namely the downturn in housing market trend hard. We maintain half of U.S. economic growth slowed judgment.

Answer 3

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Answer 4

From the federal government finances look weak positive fiscal policy and follow-up. The subprime crisis, as automatic stabilisers positive fiscal policy in the us in the process of economic recovery has played an important role. However, the subject of fiscal stimulus plan to social progress and spending more concern fiscal deficit, the second half of the federal government fiscal stimulus efforts will be weakened. Points are expected this year, our quarter 3 quarter of federal government fiscal stimulus efforts will compare strong, but in the fourth quarter will greatly abate, the contribution to GDP growth directly and indirectly contribute greatly to reduce will also.
Local government fiscal upper-management shakeups and economic growth in the second half will drag. State and under state government revenue from the subprime crisis year-on-year growth since, apparent real estate market downturn and sustained growth factors such as the individual income tax for a short time that it greatly improved. At the same time, the federal government to local governments will transfer payment in the second half. Due to the local government revenue (including tax and federal transfer payment) in the second half of difficult to recover, even slightly less than half, some local governments will buy the GDP growth is a negative factor.
Then on large-scale economic stimulus package. Unless the American economy into a second agent in the mud at the bottom of the European countries, to reduce the budget deficit, under the background of the extra stimulus bill more difficult.
Economic stimulus bill in congress and the voting process of trial will eventually, even long delays by, also can have slashed, thus reduces their economic stimulus effect.
In active fiscal stimulus efforts, under the background of the slowdown looser monetary policy will continue. In fiscal stimulus efforts, inflation inhibition and insufficient capacity utilization, under the background of the looser monetary policy will continue late-march FOMC meeting last week, the federal reserve, the news release also confirmed that. In addition, announced last week into house and new housing estate sales data confirm us since the beginning of the second half, namely the downturn in housing market trend hard. We maintain half of U.S. economic growth slowed judgment