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America’srecoverywillbemuchslowerthanthatfrommostrecessions;butthegovernmentcanhelpab... America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit.
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
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America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit.
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.
与以往的经济衰退相比,这次的复苏将会缓慢许多;但政府可以略献绵力。
“美国,您要往哪走?”这是五十年前颓废派的代表,杰克凯鲁亚克的疑问;也是如今困扰全世界经济的一个悬念。这个提问也反映美国选民最大的忧虑,国会中期选举将在11月2日举行,而失业率却顽固高居近10%并且纹丝不动。他们应该做好这场艰辛漫长之旅的准备。

The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked more likely to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.
1930年代以来最痛苦的经济衰退已在一年前结束。本来就起步乏力的复苏,在年初突然放缓。第二季度的GDP年增长率只有微弱的1.6%,过后就在这范围徘徊不前。政府的购房税务优惠政策期满后,房地产市场随之暴跌;造成私营领域的就业机会锐减,失业率似乎将可能不降反升。本夏季与日俱增的忧虑是,如果复苏持续放缓,美国经济将会再度陷入衰退。

Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate.
可喜的是,这些担忧如今看来似乎夸大了。源自中国的进口额短暂的提升是导致第二季度GDP疲软的原因;根据最新的统计,从八月份不错的销售额至领取失业补贴人数的减少显示,尽管经济还是疲惫不堪,但是已停止下滑。历史经验表明,虽然经济复苏初期的步伐在一两个季度中会摇摆不定,但很少会再陷入衰退。目前,美国经济的增长最可能是以大约2.5%水平步履蹒跚地前进;尽管是高于失速,但还是太缓慢,不足于改善失业率。

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合肥小罗
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美国经济的复苏会慢得多比大多数的经济衰退,但政府可以帮点忙。

“你往那里去,美国吗?”这个问题,造成杰克鲁亚克都是亲戚代表“垮掉的一代”半个世纪前,是最大的不确定因素挂在世界经济体系。最重要的,它反映了对于美国选民,他们担心去投票,因为国会中期选举11月2日,与这个国家的失业率固执地困在近1 / 10。他们应该准备一个漫长艰苦的旅程。

最痛苦的经济衰退自20世纪30年代结束了一年前。但是recovery-none过于强大with-slowed今年早些时候开始急剧下降。一个软弱的GDP增长了1.6%,在一年一度的步伐在第二节的时候,似乎已经被卡住了类似的开始的。房地产市场税收激励后暂时无精打采地买房子过期。所以一些私人的工作被创造出来,失业率看起来更有可能上升比下降。在这个夏天的恐惧增长持续,如果这样的减速,美国的经济衰退会滑。

幸运的是,人们的担忧现在看来似乎夸大了。部分存在的弱点,因为第二季度的GDP可能是暂时的增兵计划在从中国进口。最新的统计数据,从合理可靠的零售销售下降的索赔8月份失业津贴,指向的是经济,虽然仍很虚弱,而不是下跌进一步。和历史表明,虽然新生的回收率为经常摆动四分之一或两个人,他们很少复发步入衰退。现在,很有可能是美国经济的增长”会随着也许2.5%:以上失速速度太慢了,但远多大的区别的失业率。
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America’s recovery will be much slower than that from most recessions; but the government can help a bit
美国此次经济复苏比以往都要缓慢,但是政府可以采取一些措施
“WHITHER goest thou, America?” That question, posed by Jack Kerouac on behalf of the Beat generation half a century ago, is the biggest uncertainty hanging over the world economy. And it reflects the foremost worry for American voters, who go to the polls for the congressional mid-term elections on November 2nd with the country’s unemployment rate stubbornly stuck at nearly one in ten. They should prepare themselves for a long, hard ride.

“美利坚,你的路在何方?” 半个世纪前,“垮掉的一代”的代表作家杰克•凯鲁雅克就曾发出这样的疑问,现在这个问题成为困扰世界经济的最大不确定性因素,同时也反应了美国选民最大的担忧,11月2日国会中期选举在即,而美国10%的失业率还是居高不下。人们要有所准备,前路漫漫,充满坎坷。
The most wrenching recession since the 1930s ended a year ago. But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year. GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since. The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired. So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked likelier to rise than fall. Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into recession.

自上世纪30年代以来最严重的经济衰退在一年前结束。但是复苏的起步步伐不够强劲,并且势头在今年早些时候突然放缓。GDP在第二季度的年增长速度只有区区1.6%,并且自那以后就再无起色。政府对购买过期未还贷的住房给予短期的税收鼓励政策,但是之后房地长市场行情一路下跌。私营领域几乎没有创造出新的工作岗位,失业率有明显上升趋势。整个夏天人们都在担心,如果复苏继续放缓,美国经济可能再次滑向衰退的深渊。

Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated. Part of the weakness of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China. The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further. And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into recession. For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the jobless rate 。
幸运的是,现在看来这些担心似乎被夸大。第二季度GDP疲软的部分原因可能是因为从中国的进口暂时性上涨。从八月份相当好的销售业绩到失业津贴的需求下降,最新的统计数据无不显示,经济虽然仍旧疲软,但是已经止住了下滑的趋势。而历史告诉我们,虽然复苏初期的脚步虽然会在一或两个季度内摇摆不稳,但是很少会再次步入衰退。对于现在而言,最大的可能是美国经济会以大约2.5%的增长速度缓慢爬行,但是这一速度太过缓慢,无法大幅改变失业率。
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美国此次经济复苏比以往都要缓慢,但是政府可以采取一些措施

“美利坚,你的路在何方?” 半个世纪前,“垮掉的一代”的代表作家杰克•凯鲁雅克就曾发出这样的疑问,现在这个问题成为困扰世界经济的最大不确定性因素,同时也反应了美国选民最大的担忧,11月2日国会中期选举在即,而美国10%的失业率还是居高不下。人们要有所准备,前路漫漫,充满坎坷。
自上世纪30年代以来最严重的经济衰退在一年前结束。但是复苏的起步步伐不够强劲,并且势头在今年早些时候突然放缓。GDP在第二季度的年增长速度只有区区1.6%,并且自那以后就再无起色。政府对购买过期未还贷的住房给予短期的税收鼓励政策,但是之后房地长市场行情一路下跌。私营领域几乎没有创造出新的工作岗位,失业率有明显上升趋势。整个夏天人们都在担心,如果复苏继续放缓,美国经济可能再次滑向衰退的深渊。
幸运的是,现在看来这些担心似乎被夸大。第二季度GDP疲软的部分原因可能是因为从中国的进口暂时性上涨。从八月份相当好的销售业绩到失业津贴的需求下降,最新的统计数据无不显示,经济虽然仍旧疲软,但是已经止住了下滑的趋势。而历史告诉我们,虽然复苏初期的脚步虽然会在一或两个季度内摇摆不稳,但是很少会再次步入衰退。对于现在而言,最大的可能是美国经济会以大约2.5%的增长速度缓慢爬行,但是这一速度太过缓慢,无法大幅改变失业率。
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