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从国际上来看，近年来发达国家大多建立了预警机制，从立法和制度上予以规范，提高政府的预警能力。随着现代社会复杂程度的进一步提高,各种变量对社会秩序影响的复杂性也在增加,西方各国为此十分重视对社会现行运行状态及未来发展进行预测,利用现代科学技术手段进行各种监测和社会调查,运用统计资料、数学模型和计算机模拟等对诸多社会变量进行分析。如美国政府在联邦系统内建立了较为完善的预警系统，其总的特征为“行政首长领导，中央协调，地方负责。”西方国家政府在“9.11”之后，也加强了对高校突发事件的关注，并出台了一系列的措施来加强此方面的管理，美国联邦政府在整合相关资源，确保高校教职员工的安全方面做得尤为突出。几乎每个州都有专门的学校突发事件管理机构，这些机构的职责就在于进行突发事件管理研究，为本州的所有学校提供突发事件管理报告，制定并散发一些突发事件管理的手册，对师生进行明确具体的指导与培训等。此外，美国还有许多管理协会和业余团体，他们也对校园突发事件进行研究，比如1968年美国学校管理人员协会(AASA)成立了全国学校行政人员学会(NASE)，1979年北卡罗莱州创建了校长培训学院，其目的都是通过组织举办学术论坛、提交咨询报告或开展合作研究等各种活动，帮助在职的学校管理人员提高专业水平，特别是应对学校突发事件的能力。

日本政府针对突发性事件采取了“行政首脑指挥，综合机构协调联络，中央会议制定对策，地方政府具体实施”的模式，建立了预警制度。日本的高校对公共突发事件管理形成较为系统的机制和体制。如日本由于是地震多发国，从学校的主管部门到学校都非常重视应对各种类型突发事件的预警机制研究，日本高校的主管部门“文部科学省”对高校的危机管理和预警机制直接进行指导。

近几年，国内对预警机制的研究已经取得了一定成果，有的已经被政府实际应用。如主张建立突发性事件事前预防与警示机制：包括设立专门负责的常设机构、协调机构，负责日常社会矛盾的处理与信息收集;针对自然灾害或意外事故，进行必要的警示培训和安全意识教育;针对突发性群体事件，构建人性化、理性化的社会疏导体系。其次，建立了突发性事件预警等级机制，加强政府权力之间的协调，强化预警责任制，规定了不同的预警级别。2003年“非典”之后，许多省份以国务院《突发公共卫生事件应急条例》为蓝本，纷纷制定本区域公共卫生突发性事件的规范性文件，并展开了积极研究，如2003年6月6日，北京市举办“突发事件深层次思考研讨会”，提出了社会突发性事件的预警和应急机制。相关学者也纷纷撰文，以“非典”时期政府的应对得失为研究对象，从突发性事件的成因入手，围绕应急机构设置、信息收集与发布及预警和反应系统等内容，探讨新时期政府突发性事件预警及应急机制的建立问题。2003年经历了“非典”之后，很多高校也建立了预警级别系统，如河北农业大学建立了《河北农业大学预防和控制暴发性传染病工作预案》，提出了分级预警：在校内实施四级预警制度。(绿色预警、黄色预警、橙色预警、红色预警。

总体来看，当前对预警机制的研究主要是针对政府部门如何实现预警管理，而且宏观理论研究较强，存在着可操作性、针对性较差等不足。对高校预警机制的研究更是没有引起足够的重视，缺乏结合高校实际，应用性强的预警机制方面的研究。表现在：一是多停留在一般理论研究上，实证性研究不够，针对性和可操作性不强;二是多局限于某一特定领域或一些具体环节，缺乏深入系统的研究;三是尚未建立实效准确的高校公共突发事件监测体系和预警系统。总之，对高校公共突发事件的预警机制研究还处在探索阶段，缺乏系统性、针对性的体系研究。

Answer 1

以后要写清什么语言的！
From an international point of view, most developed countries in recent years set up early warning mechanisms, to be from the legislative and institutional norms, and enhance the Government's early warning capability. With the complexity of modern society, the further improvement of various variables on the impact of social order are also increasing the complexity of the Western countries attach great importance to this end the existing state of society and to predict the future development of the use of modern science and technology by means of a variety of monitoring and social survey, the use of statistical data, mathematical models and computer simulation of a number of social variables, such as for analysis. If the U.S. government at the federal system, the establishment of a more comprehensive early warning system is characterized by its total "executive heads of the leadership, the central co-ordination, local responsibility." Western governments in the "9.11", they might also have strengthened the college emergencies concern and issued a series of measures to strengthen management in this regard, the U.S. federal government in the integration of relevant resources to ensure the safety of University staff, particularly in doing. Almost every state school has a special emergency management agencies, these institutions is to carry out the duties of emergency management for all schools, state emergency management reports, develop and disseminate a number of emergency management manual, conducted for teachers and students clear and specific guidance and training. In addition, the management of the United States there are many associations and amateur groups, they also conduct research on campus emergencies, such as the United States in 1968 the School Management Association (AASA) has established a national school administrators Institute (NASE), 1979 in the North Carolina State created a training college principals, the purpose of the academic through organized forums, submit reports or carry out the consultation and other cooperative research activities to help the school administrators working to improve professional standards, especially in schools to deal with unexpected events.

The Japanese government for, emergencies take the "chief executive command, the consolidated inter-agency coordination of contact, the Central Conference on the development of countermeasures, the specific implementation of local government" approach, the establishment of early warning system. Japan's public colleges and universities to form a relatively sudden event management systems and institutional mechanisms. Such as Japan as a result of the earthquake-prone country, from school to school the competent authorities attach great importance to respond to emergencies of all types of early warning mechanism, the competent departments of colleges and universities in Japan, "Ministry" of the university crisis management and early warning mechanism for direct guidance.

In recent years, the national early-warning mechanism for research has made some achievements, some of them have practical applications by the Government. Advocate the establishment of such as prevention, emergencies and alert mechanisms: including the establishment of a permanent body responsible for coordinating bodies, responsible for day-to-day handling of social conflicts and information gathering; for natural disasters or accidents, warning the necessary training and safety education ; groups for unexpected events, building a humane and rational system of social ease. Secondly, the establishment of early warning incidents of unexpected levels mechanism to enhance coordination between government power and strengthening of early warning accountability, provides a different level of warning. 2003 "SARS", the number of provinces to the State Council, "Public Health Emergency Ordinance" as the blueprint for the development of the region have public health emergencies of normative documents, and to initiate an active research, such as in June 2003 6, held in Beijing, "Deep Thought of emergencies Seminar", the social event of unexpected early-warning and emergency response mechanism. Scholars have also associated the author of "atypical pneumonia" during the Government's response to gains and losses for the study, from the sudden start of the causes, set up around the emergency response agencies, information collection and release and early warning and response systems, such as the contents of the Government to explore the new era early warning, emergencies and the establishment of emergency mechanisms. Experienced in 2003, "SARS", the many colleges and universities have also established an early warning-level systems, such as the establishment of the Agricultural University of Hebei, "Agricultural University of Hebei outbreak prevention and control of sexually transmitted diseases work plan" put forward a classification warning: in schools, the implementation of four level early warning system. (Green warning, a yellow alert, orange alert, red alert.

Overall, the current research on the early warning mechanism is directed primarily at how to achieve early warning management, and strong macro-theoretical studies, there is a feasible, less than targeted poor. Early warning mechanism for colleges and universities is the study did not pay sufficient attention to the lack of colleges and universities combined with practical application of early warning mechanism and strong research. : First, stay in the general theoretical studies, empirical research is not enough targeted and maneuverability is not strong; II is limited to a particular area or some specific aspect of the lack of depth and systematic study; third is not yet colleges and universities to establish effective and accurate monitoring system of public emergencies and early warning systems. In short, public colleges and universities of the early warning mechanism for emergency research is still in the exploratory stage, the lack of systematic, targeted system.